Related papers: A rigorous lower confidence bound for the expectat…
This paper studies and critically discusses the construction of nonparametric confidence regions for density level sets. Methodologies based on both vertical variation and horizontal variation are considered. The investigations provide…
The Cram\'er-Rao bound (CRB), a well-known lower bound on the performance of any unbiased parameter estimator, has been used to study a wide variety of problems. However, to obtain the CRB, requires an analytical expression for the…
Estimating high quantiles plays an important role in the context of risk management. This involves extrapolation of an unknown distribution function. In this paper we propose three methods, namely, the normal approximation method, the…
We present a series of new and more favorable margin-based learning guarantees that depend on the empirical margin loss of a predictor. We give two types of learning bounds, both distribution-dependent and valid for general families, in…
The median absolute deviation (MAD) is a robust measure of scale that is simple to implement and easy to interpret. Motivated by this, we introduce interval estimators of the MAD to make reliable inferences for dispersion for a single…
Universal hypothesis testing refers to the problem of deciding whether samples come from a nominal distribution or an unknown distribution that is different from the nominal distribution. Hoeffding's test, whose test statistic is equivalent…
We target the problem of accuracy and robustness in causal inference from finite data sets. Some state-of-the-art algorithms produce clear output complete with solid theoretical guarantees but are susceptible to propagating erroneous…
Simultaneous confidence bands (SCBs) for percentiles in linear regression are valuable tools with many applications. In this paper, we propose a novel criterion for comparing SCBs for percentiles, termed the Minimum Area Confidence Set…
Selective classification allows models to abstain from making predictions (e.g., say "I don't know") when in doubt in order to obtain better effective accuracy. While typical selective models can be effective at producing more accurate…
In this paper, we develop a general theory of truncated inverse binomial sampling. In this theory, the fixed-size sampling and inverse binomial sampling are accommodated as special cases. In particular, the classical Chernoff-Hoeffding…
We propose a new inference framework called localized conformal prediction. It generalizes the framework of conformal prediction by offering a single-test-sample adaptive construction that emphasizes a local region around this test sample,…
A long noted difficulty when assessing the reliability (or calibration) of forecasting systems is that reliability, in general, is a hypothesis not about a finite dimensional parameter but about an entire functional relationship. A…
Being cautious is crucial for enhancing the trustworthiness of machine learning systems integrated into decision-making pipelines. Although calibrated probabilities help in optimal decision-making, perfect calibration remains unattainable,…
In a linear regression model of fixed dimension $p \leq n$, we construct confidence regions for the unknown parameter vector based on the Lasso estimator that uniformly and exactly hold the prescribed in finite samples as well as in an…
Clustered sampling is prevalent in empirical regression discontinuity (RD) designs, but it has not received much attention in the theoretical literature. In this paper, we introduce a general model-based framework for such settings and…
The paper deals with the problem of nonparametric estimating the $L_p$--norm, $p\in (1,\infty)$, of a probability density on $R^d$, $d\geq 1$ from independent observations. The unknown density %to be estimated is assumed to belong to a ball…
Selective inference aims at providing valid inference after a data-driven selection of models or hypotheses. It is essential to avoid overconfident results and replicability issues. While significant advances have been made in this area for…
Randomized smoothing has been shown to provide good certified-robustness guarantees for high-dimensional classification problems. It uses the probabilities of predicting the top two most-likely classes around an input point under a…
In this paper, we construct the simultaneous confidence band (SCB) for the nonparametric component in partially linear panel data models with fixed effects. We remove the fixed effects, and further obtain the estimators of parametric and…
In this paper we first provide a method to compute confidence intervals for the center of a piecewise normal distribution given a sample from this distribution, under certain assumptions. We then extend this method to an asymptotic setting,…