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The State and its citizens generate lots of data. Once stored and processed, data can help resolve questions in Social Sciences, where it is common to need data in a different level of aggregation than the data is presented. In election…
This paper introduces an approach to reference class selection in distributional forecasting with an application to corporate sales growth rates using several co-variates as reference variables, that are implicit predictors. The method can…
In this paper we consider the modeling of opinion dynamics over time dependent large scale networks. A kinetic description of the agents' distribution over the evolving network is considered which combines an opinion update based on binary…
The voter model is a simple agent-based model to mimic opinion dynamics in social networks: a randomly chosen agent adopts the opinion of a randomly chosen neighbour. This process is repeated until a consensus emerges. Although the basic…
The limited range in its abscissa of ranked letter frequency distributions causes multiple functions to fit the observed distribution reasonably well. In order to critically compare various functions, we apply the statistical model…
In modern democracies, the outcome of elections and referendums is often remarkably tight. The repetition of these divisive events are the hallmark of a split society; to the physicist, however, it is an astonishing feat for such large…
We study the statistics of turnout rates and results of the French elections since 1992. We find that the distribution of turnout rates across towns is surprisingly stable over time. The spatial correlation of the turnout rates, or of the…
In this paper we present a social network and forensic analysis of the vote counts of Spanish national elections that took place in December 2015 and their sequel in June 2016. Vote counts are extracted at the level of municipalities,…
Distributed voting is a fundamental topic in distributed computing. In pull voting, in each step every vertex chooses a neighbour uniformly at random, and adopts its opinion. The voting is completed when all vertices hold the same opinion.…
This paper presents a probabilistic analysis of what we call the "repeated solicitation model". To give a specific context, suppose B is a direct marketing company with a list of S sales prospects. At epoch 1, B sends a solicitation to…
The statistical distribution of levels of an integrable system is claimed to be a Poisson distribution. In this paper, we numerically generate an ensemble of N dimensional random diagonal matrices as a model for regular systems. We evaluate…
A hybrid model for opinion dynamics in complex multi-agent networks is introduced, wherein some continuous-valued agents average neighbors' opinions to update their own, while other discrete-valued agents use stochastic copying and voting…
We model an electorate voting on the funding of a public good in a two-party system in an evolutionary game theory framework. Voters adopt one of four strategies: Consensus-makers, Gridlockers, Party 1 Zealots, and Party 2 Zealots, which…
A version of the secretary problem is considered. The ranks of items, whose values are independent, identically distributed random variables $X_1,X_2,...,X_n$ from a uniform distribution on $[0; 1]$, are observed sequentially by the grader.…
Non-linear voter models assume that the opinion of an agent depends on the opinions of its neighbors in a non-linear manner. This allows for voting rules different from majority voting. While the linear voter model is known to reach…
The voter model is a classical interacting particle system, modelling how global consensus is formed by local imitation. We analyse the time to consensus for a particular family of voter models when the underlying structure is a scale-free…
Elections constitute a paradigm of decision-making problems that have puzzled experts of different disciplines for decades. We study two decision-making problems, where groups make decisions that impact only themselves as a group. In both…
We consider a distributed voting problem with a set of agents that are partitioned into disjoint groups and a set of obnoxious alternatives. Agents and alternatives are represented by points in a metric space. The goal is to compute the…
We study in details the turnout rate statistics for 77 elections in 11 different countries. We show that the empirical results established in a previous paper for French elections appear to hold much more generally. We find in particular…
This paper studies the semi-parametric identification and estimation of a rational inattention model with Bayesian persuasion. The identification requires the observation of a cross-section of market-level outcomes. The empirical content of…