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Extreme value distributions are routinely employed to assess risks connected to extreme events in a large number of applications. They typically are two- or three- parameter distributions: the inference can be unstable, which is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-19 Nathan Huet , Ilaria Prosdocimi

We discuss limit distributions for hitting-time functions of certain exceptional families of asymptotically rare events for ergodic probability preserving transformations. The abstract core is an inducing argument. The latter applies, for…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2018-06-08 Roland Zweimüller

We study analytically the distribution of the minimum of a set of hierarchically correlated random variables $E_1$, $E_2$, $...$, $E_N$ where $E_i$ represents the energy of the $i$-th path of a directed polymer on a Cayley tree. If the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-07 D. S. Dean , Satya N. Majumdar

We consider globally invertible and piecewise contracting maps in higher dimensions and we perturb them with a particular kind of noise introduced by Lasota and Mackey. We got random transformations which are given by a stationary process:…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2015-03-19 D. Faranda , J. -M. Freitas , P. Guiraud , S. Vaienti

Motivated by observations that suggest the presence of extremely massive clusters at uncomfortably high redshifts for the standard cosmological model to explain, we develop a theoretical framework for the study of the most massive haloes,…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2011-11-28 Ian Harrison , Peter Coles

We describe the asymptotic behaviour of large degrees in random hyperbolic graphs, for all values of the curvature parameter $ \alpha$. We prove that, with high probability, the node degrees satisfy the following ordering property: the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-03-27 Loïc Gassmann

In this paper we provide a connection between the geometrical properties of a chaotic dynamical system and the distribution of extreme values. We show that the extremes of so-called physical observables are distributed according to the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-12 Valerio Lucarini , Tobias Kuna , Davide Faranda , Jeroen Wouters

We extend the scope of the dynamical theory of extreme values to cover phenomena that do not happen instantaneously, but evolve over a finite, albeit unknown at the onset, time interval. We consider complex dynamical systems, composed of…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2020-05-20 Theophile Caby , Giorgio Mantica

We study the extremal dynamics emerging in an out-of-equilibrium one-dimensional Jepsen gas of $(N+1)$ hard-point particles. The particles undergo binary elastic collisions, but move ballistically in-between collisions. The gas is initally…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-13 Ioana Bena , Satya N. Majumdar

We provide a near-optimal, computationally efficient algorithm for the unit-demand pricing problem, where a seller wants to price n items to optimize revenue against a unit-demand buyer whose values for the items are independently drawn…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2014-10-28 Yang Cai , Constantinos Daskalakis

We explore the class of exchangeable Bernoulli distributions building on their geometrical structure. Exchangeable Bernoulli probability mass functions are points in a convex polytope and we have found analytical expressions for their…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-01-20 Roberto Fontana , Patrizia Semeraro

Exponential distribution is ubiquitous in the framework of multi-agent systems. Usually, it appears as an equilibrium state in the asymptotic time evolution of statistical systems. It has been explained from very different perspectives. In…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2011-03-10 Ricardo Lopez-Ruiz , Jose-Luis Lopez , Xavier Calbet

The distribution of return intervals of extreme events is studied in time series characterized by finite-term correlations with non-exponential decay. Precisely, it has been analyzed the statistics of the return intervals of extreme values…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-11-11 Cecilia Pennetta

Building upon previous works by Young, Chernov-Zhang and Bruin-Melbourne-Terhesiu, we present a general scheme to improve bounds on the statistical properties (in particular, decay of correlations, and rates in the almost sure invariant…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-02-04 Péter Bálint , Ábel Komálovics

We investigate the limiting distribution of geometric Brownian motion conditional on its running maximum taking large values. We show that the conditional distribution of the geometric Brownian motion converges after a suitable…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-05-14 Ze-An Ng

For a certain parametrized family of maps on the circle, with critical points and logarithmic singularities where derivatives blow up to infinity, a positive measure set of parameters was constructed in [19], corresponding to maps which…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2012-02-07 Hiroki Takahasi

It will be discussed the statistics of the extreme values in time series characterized by finite-term correlations with non-exponential decay. Precisely, it will be considered the results of numerical analyses concerning the return…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-13 Cecilia Pennetta

We show that a compound Poisson distribution holds for scaled exceedances of observables $\phi$ uniquely maximized at a periodic point $\zeta$ in a variety of two-dimensional hyperbolic dynamical systems with singularities $(M,T,\mu)$,…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2017-11-22 Meagan Carney , Matthew Nicol , Hong-Kun Zhang

We prove the almost sure invariance principle with rate $o(n^{\varepsilon})$ for every $\varepsilon > 0$ for H\"older continuous observables on nonuniformly expanding and nonuniformly hyperbolic transformations with exponential tails.…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2018-09-26 Alexey Korepanov

A family of models of growing hypergraphs with preferential rules of new linking is introduced and studied. The model hypergraphs evolve via the hyperedge-based growth as well as the node-based one, thus generalizing the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-09-04 Dahae Roh , Kwang-Il Goh