Related papers: Solving the 100 Swiss Francs Problem
The Monty Hall puzzle has been solved and dissected in many ways, but always using probabilistic arguments, so it is considered a probability puzzle. In this paper the puzzle is set up as an orthodox statistical problem involving an unknown…
We consider the Ekst\''om-Persson conjecture concerning the value of the Hausdorff dimension of random covering sets formed by balls with radii $(k^{-\alpha})_{k=1}^\infty$ and centres chosen independently at random according to an…
In this paper we introduce the notion of $e$-computability as a method of finding the Waring rank of forms. We use this notion to find infinitely many new examples which satisfy Strassen's Conjecture.
We study scenarii linked with the Swiss cheese picture in dimension three obtained when two random walks are forced to meet often, or when one random walk is forced to squeeze its range. In the case of two random walks, we show that they…
We discuss the use of likelihood asymptotics for inference on risk measures in univariate extreme value problems, focusing on estimation of high quantiles and similar summaries of risk for uncertainty quantification. We study whether…
We present an approximated maximum likelihood method for the multifractal random walk processes of [E. Bacry et al., Phys. Rev. E 64, 026103 (2001)]. The likelihood is computed using a Laplace approximation and a truncation in the…
Starting from the first Hardy-Littlewood conjecture some topics will be covered: an empirical approach to the distribution of the twin primes in classes mod(10) and a simplified proof of the Bruns theorem . Finally, it will be explored an…
Maximum satisfiability is a canonical NP-hard optimization problem that appears empirically hard for random instances. Let us say that a Conjunctive normal form (CNF) formula consisting of $k$-clauses is $p$-satisfiable if there exists a…
Some statements have one well-defined continuation (e.g., "the Eiffel Tower is in [Paris]"), whereas others have a natural distribution over multiple options (e.g., "the weighted coin flip was [Heads/Tails].") We argue that language model…
Let $N$ be a fixed positive integer, and let $f\in S_k(N)$ be a primitive cusp form given by the Fourier expansion $f(z)=\sum_{n=1}^{\infty} \lambda_f(n)n^{\frac{k-1}{2}}e(nz)$. We consider the partial sum $S(x,f)=\sum_{n\leq…
In this article we provide initial findings regarding the problem of solving likelihood equations by means of a maximum entropy approach. Unlike standard procedures that require equating at zero the score function of the maximum-likelihood…
The widespread usage of latent language representations via pre-trained language models (LMs) suggests that they are a promising source of structured knowledge. However, existing methods focus only on a single object per subject-relation…
It is a well-known conjecture, sometimes attributed to Frankl, that for any family of sets which is closed under the union operation, there is some element which is contained in at least half of the sets. Gilmer was the first to prove a…
Maximum subarray is a classical problem in computer science that given an array of numbers aims to find a contiguous subarray with the largest sum. We focus on its use for a noisy statistical problem of localizing an interval with a mean…
How predictable a word is can be quantified in two ways: using human responses to the cloze task or using probabilities from language models (LMs).When used as predictors of processing effort, LM probabilities outperform probabilities…
We survey the developments in the model theory of tracial von Neumann algebras that have taken place in the last fifteen years. We discuss the appropriate first-order language for axiomatizing this class as well as the subclass of II$_1$…
Recent works have proposed various explanations for the ability of modern large language models (LLMs) to perform in-context prediction. We propose an alternative conceptual viewpoint from an information-geometric and statistical…
These are lecture notes written at the University of Zurich during spring 2014 and spring 2015. The first part of the notes gives an introduction to probability theory. It explains the notion of random events and random variables,…
In the online (time-series) search problem, a player is presented with a sequence of prices which are revealed in an online manner. In the standard definition of the problem, for each revealed price, the player must decide irrevocably…
The minimum number of observations such that the maximum likelihood estimator in a Gaussian graphical model exists with probability one is called the maximum likelihood threshold of the underlying graph G. The natural algebraic relaxation…