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Many real epidemics of an infectious disease are not straightforwardly super- or sub-critical, and the understanding of epidemic models that exhibit such complexity has been identified as a priority for theoretical work. We provide insights…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-02-23 Graham Brightwell , Thomas House , Malwina Luczak

This article studies the quasi-stationary behaviour of population processes with unbounded absorption rate, including one-dimensional birth and death processes with catastrophes and multi-dimensional birth and death processes, modeling…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-11-10 Nicolas Champagnat , Denis Villemonais

The statistics of natural catastrophes contains very counter-intuitive results. Using earthquakes as a working example, we show that the energy radiated by such events follows a power-law or Pareto distribution. This means, in theory, that…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2012-10-04 Alvaro Corral , Francesc Font-Clos

In this paper, we consider certain linear-fractional branching processes with immigration in varying environments. For $n\ge0,$ let $Z_n$ counts the number of individuals of the $n$-th generation, which excludes the immigrant which enters…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-11-27 Baozhi Li , Hongyan Sun , Hua-Ming Wang

This paper states a law of large numbers for a random walk in a random iid environment on ${\mathbb Z}^d$, where the environment follows some Dirichlet distribution. Moreover, we give explicit bounds for the asymptotic velocity of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Nathanaël Enriquez , Christophe Sabot

We consider a branching random walk for which the maximum position of a particle in the n'th generation, M_n, has zero speed on the linear scale: M_n/n --> 0 as n --> infinity. We further remove ("kill") any particle whose displacement is…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-08-10 Louigi Addario-Berry , Nicolas Broutin

We study a general class of birth-and-death processes with state space $\mathbb{N}$ that describes the size of a population going to extinction with probability one. This class contains the logistic case. The scale of the population is…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-02-20 J. -R. Chazottes , P. Collet , S. Méléard

We consider a general class of birth-and-death processes with state space $\{0,1,2,3,\ldots\}$ which describes the size of a population going eventually to extinction with probability one. We obtain the complete spectrum of the generator of…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-04-25 J. -R. Chazottes , P. Collet , S. Méléard

A Galton-Watson branching process with immigration evolving in a random environment is considered. Its associated random walk is assumed to be oscillating. We prove a functional limit theorem in which the process under consideration is…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-03-17 V. I. Afanasyev

It is well known that the behaviour of a branching process is completely described by the generating function of the offspring law and its fixed points. Branching random walks are a natural generalization of branching processes: a branching…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-11-28 Daniela Bertacchi , Fabio Zucca

Let $\mathcal{T}$ be a supercritical Galton-Watson tree with a bounded offspring distribution that has mean $\mu >1$, conditioned to survive. Let $\varphi_{\mathcal{T}}$ be a random embedding of $\mathcal{T}$ into $\mathbb{Z}^d$ according…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-03-14 Remco van der Hofstad , Tim Hulshof , Jan Nagel

We consider a new model of a branching random walk on a multidimensional lattice with continuous time and one source of particle reproduction and death, as well as an infinite number of sources in which, in addition to the walk, only…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-02-14 E. Filichkina , E. Yarovaya

We study persistence probabilities for random walks in correlated Gaussian random environment first studied by Oshanin, Rosso and Schehr. From the persistence results, we can deduce properties of critical branching processes with offspring…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-12-21 Frank Aurzada , Alexis Devulder , Nadine Guillotin-Plantard , Françoise Pène

We study the asymptotic behaviour of the probability that a stochastic process $(Z_t)_{t \geq 0}$ does not exceed a constant barrier up to time $T$ (the so called survival probability) when Z is the composition of two independent processes…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-07-20 Christoph Baumgarten

We present an explicit unified stochastic model of fluctuations in population size due to random birth, death, density-dependent competition and environmental fluctuations. Stochastic dynamics provide insight into small populations,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2008-07-31 Alexei J. Drummond , Peter D. Drummond

We consider branching random walks in $d$-dimensional integer lattice with time-space i.i.d. offspring distributions. This model is known to exhibit a phase transition: If $d \ge 3$ and the environment is "not too random", then, the total…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-12-06 Yueyun Hu , Nobuo Yoshida

The subcritical Markov branching process X(t) starting with one particle as the initial condition has the ultimate extinction probability q = 1. The branching mechanism in consideration is defined by the mixture of logarithmic distributions…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-12-06 Penka Mayster , Assen Tchorbadjieff

We consider the spreading dynamics of two nested invasion clusters on an infinite tree. This model was defined as the chase-escape model by Kordzakhia and it admits a limit process, the birth-and-assassination process, previously introduced…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-03-06 Charles Bordenave

In this paper, we study the speed of extinction of continuous state branching processes in subcritical L\'evy environments. More precisely, when the associated L\'evy process to the environment drifts to $-\infty$ and, under a suitable…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-02-20 Natalia Cardona-Tobón , Juan Carlos Pardo

We consider an indecomposable Galton-Watson branching process with countably infinitely many types. Assuming that the process is critical and allowing for infinite variance of the offspring sizes of some (or all) types of particles we…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-03-02 V. A. Topchii , V. A. Vatutin , E. E. Dyakonova