Related papers: Limits on CO2 Climate Forcing from Recent Temperat…
Assessing the consistency between short-term global temperature trends in observations and climate model projections is a challenging problem. While climate models capture many processes governing short-term climate fluctuations, they are…
Two ways of parameterising the temporal dependence of the global average temperature anomalies after 1900 are put forth in this technical note. The models are fitted to the data of the Berkeley Earth Group (up to the end of 2023), after the…
The forcings due to changing concentrations of Earth's five most important, naturally occurring greenhouse gases, H$_2$O, CO$_2$, O$_3$, N$_2$O and CH$_4$ as well as CF$_4$ and SF$_6$ were evaluated for the case of a cloud-free atmosphere.…
Extrasolar terrestrial planets with the potential to host life might have large obliquities or be subject to strong obliquity variations. We revisit the habitability of oblique planets with an energy balance climate model (EBM) allowing for…
The contribution of anthropogenic and natural greenhouse gases to the atmosphere from the territory of Russia, China, USA and Canada to global climate change under different scenarios of anthropogenic emissions in the 21st century has been…
We produce new reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere annually averaged temperature anomalies back to 1000 AD, and explore the effects of including external climate forcings within the reconstruction and of accounting for short-memory and…
The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest driver of interannual global climate variability and can lead to extreme weather events like droughts and flooding. Additionally, ENSO influences the mean global temperature with…
The mean surface temperature on Earth and other planets with atmospheres is determined by the radiative balance between the non-reflected incoming solar radiation and the outgoing long-wave black-body radiation from the atmosphere. The…
The carbon-silicate cycle regulates the atmospheric $CO_2$ content of terrestrial planets on geological timescales through a balance between the rates of $CO_2$ volcanic outgassing and planetary intake from rock weathering. It is thought to…
Satellite and ground-based observations are used to explore the composite oceanic - atmospheric link known as the El Ni\~no/La Ni\~na Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, which is closely associated with extreme weather events (e.g. heat…
Water-rich planets such as Earth are expected to become eventually uninhabitable, because liquid water does not remain stable at the surface as surface temperatures increase with the solar luminosity over time. Whether a large increase of…
The solar contribution to global mean air surface temperature change is analyzed by using an empirical bi-scale climate model characterized by both fast and slow characteristic time responses to solar forcing: $\tau_1 =0.4 \pm 0.1$ yr, and…
With climate change-related extreme events on the rise, high dimensional Earth observation data presents a unique opportunity for forecasting and understanding impacts on ecosystems. This is, however, impeded by the complexity of…
We theoretically study long-term trends in the statistics of record-breaking daily temperatures and validate these predictions using Monte Carlo simulations and data from the city of Philadelphia, for which 126 years of daily temperature…
Explaining the evidence for surface liquid water on early Mars has been a challenge for climate modelers, as the sun was ~30% less luminous during the late-Noachian. We propose that the additional greenhouse forcing of CO2-H2…
Observations of planets throughout our Solar System have revealed that the Earth is not alone in possessing natural, inter-annual atmospheric cycles. The equatorial middle atmospheres of the Earth, Jupiter and Saturn all exhibit a…
The climate system is a forced, dissipative, nonlinear, complex and heterogeneous system that is out of thermodynamic equilibrium. The system exhibits natural variability on many scales of motion, in time as well as space, and it is subject…
Two future scenarios that are not explicitly in the range of scenarios (the Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios) utilised by the IPCC. These two scenarios are the emissions trend under peak fossil fuel (for example, Mohr et al.,…
A recently advanced argument against the atmospheric greenhouse effect is refuted. A planet without an infrared absorbing atmosphere is mathematically constrained to have an average temperature less than or equal to the effective radiating…
Universal role of the nonlinear one-third subharmonic resonance mechanism in generation of the strong fluctuations in such complex natural dynamical systems as global climate and global solar activity is discussed using wavelet regression…