Related papers: Limits on CO2 Climate Forcing from Recent Temperat…
Global warming arises from 'temperature forcing', a net imbalance between energy fluxes entering and leaving the climate system and arising within it. Humanity introduces temperature forcing through greenhouse gas emissions, agriculture,…
Recent analyses indicate that the amount of atmospheric CO2 required to cause dangerous climate change is at most 450 ppm, and likely less than that. Reductions of non-CO2 climate forcings can provide only moderate, albeit important,…
We do several simple calculations and measurements in an effort to gain understanding of global warming and the carbon cycle. Some conclusions are interesting: (i) There has been global warming since the end of the "little ice age" around…
We use continuous wavelet tools to characterize the dynamics of climate change across time and frequencies. This approach allows us to capture the changing patterns in the relationship between global mean temperature anomalies and climate…
Global temperature is a fundamental climate metric highly correlated with sea level, which implies that keeping shorelines near their present location requires keeping global temperature within or close to its preindustrial Holocene range.…
We investigate the issue of "dangerous human-made interference with climate" using simulations with GISS modelE driven by measured or estimated forcings for 1880-2003 and extended to 2100 for IPCC greenhouse gas scenarios as well as the…
In 2023, the global mean temperature soared to 1.48K above the pre-industrial level, surpassing the previous record by 0.17K. Previous best-guess estimates of known drivers including anthropogenic warming and the El Nino onset fall short by…
We carry out climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE driven by ten measured or estimated climate forcings. An ensemble of climate model runs is carried out for each forcing acting individually and for all forcing mechanisms…
It is shown that, the wavelet regression detrended fluctuations of the monthly global temperature data (land and ocean combined) for the period 1880-2009yy, are completely dominated by one-third subharmonic resonance to annual forcing (both…
How strong are quantitative contributions of the key natural modes of climate variability and the anthropogenic factor characterized by the changes of the radiative forcing of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to the trends of the surface…
Paleoclimate data show that climate sensitivity is ~3 deg-C for doubled CO2, including only fast feedback processes. Equilibrium sensitivity, including slower surface albedo feedbacks, is ~6 deg-C for doubled CO2 for the range of climate…
There is argument as to the extent to which there has been an increase over the past few decades in the frequency of the extremes of climatic parameters, such as temperature, storminess, precipitation, etc, an obvious point being that…
Quantitative estimates of the contributions of the anthropogenic forcing, characterized by changes in the radiative forcing of atmospheric greenhouse gases (CO2, in particular), and solar activity variations to the trends of the global…
The observed global mean surface temperature increase from 1998 to 2012 was slower than that since 1951. The relative contributions of all relevant factors including climate forcers, however, have not been comprehensively analyzed. Using a…
Improving observations of ocean heat content show that Earth is absorbing more energy from the sun than it is radiating to space as heat, even during the recent solar minimum. The inferred planetary energy imbalance, 0.59 \pm 0.15 W/m2…
We use the Global Historical Climatology Network--daily database to calculate a nonparametric statistic that describes the rate at which all-time daily high and low temperature records have been set in nine geographic regions (continents or…
As a consequence of greenhouse forcing, all state of the art general circulation models predict a positive temperature trend that is greater for the troposphere than the surface. This predicted positive trend increases in value with…
Higher concentrations of atmospheric nitrous oxide (N2O) are expected to slightly warm Earth's surface because of increases in radiative forcing. Radiative forcing is the difference in the net upward thermal radiation flux from the Earth…
To answer the questions of whether global warming is accelerating and when the 1.5{\deg}C Paris Agreement target will be exceeded, the global mean surface temperature from 1880 to 2025 is first examined using a purely graphical approach and…
The strength of mid-latitude storm tracks shapes weather and climate phenomena in the extra-tropics, as these storm tracks control the daily to multi-decadal variability of precipitation, temperature and winds. By the end of this century,…