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Related papers: Limits on CO2 Climate Forcing from Recent Temperat…

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The high growth rate of atmospheric CO2 in 2023 was found to be caused by a severe reduction of the global net land carbon sink. Here we update the global CO2 budget from January 1st to July 1st 2024, during which El Ni\~no drought…

Orbital forcing plays a key role in pacing the glacial-interglacial cycles. However, the mechanistic linkages between the orbital parameters - eccentricity, obliquity, and precession - and global ice volume remain unclear. Here, we…

Geophysics · Physics 2023-12-05 Liam Wheen , Oscar Benjamin , Thomas Gernon , Cameron Hall , Jerry Wright

"Climate dice", describing the chance of unusually warm or cool seasons relative to climatology, have become progressively "loaded" in the past 30 years, coincident with rapid global warming. The distribution of seasonal mean temperature…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2012-09-12 James Hansen , Makiko Sato , Reto Ruedy

Once carbon emission neutrality and other sustainability goals have been achieved, a widespread assumption is that economic growth at current rates can be sustained beyond the 21st century. However, even if we achieve these goals, this…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-05-12 Andreas M. Hein , Jean-Baptiste Rudelle

As IPCC ARs stated, global warming is estimated based on the average from 1850 to 1900 (global average temperature of preindustrialization estimated from relatively sparse observations). Given the impossibility of massive increasing…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-08-10 Qingxiang Li , Zichen Li , Xuqian Li , Zengyun Hu , Aiguo Dai , Wenjie Dong , Boyin Huang , Zhihong Jiang , Panmao Zhai , Tianjun Zhou , Phil Jones

The El Ni\~no phenomenon, synonymously El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is an anomalous climatic oscillation in the Equatorial Pacific that occurs once every 3-8 years. It affects the earth's climate on a global scale. Whether it is a…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2007-05-23 Debabrata Panja , Gerrit Burgers

A set of idealized experiments are performed to analyze the competing effects of declining atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the opening of an ocean gateway, and varying orbital parameters. These forcing mechanisms, which influence the global…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2016-02-04 Eileen Hertwig , Frank Lunkeit , Klaus Fraedrich

The El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a mode of interannual variability in the coupled equatorial ocean/atmosphere Pacific. El Ni\~no describes a state in which sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific increase and upwelling…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2016-07-12 John Guckenheimer , Andrew Roberts , Axel Timmermann , Henk Dijkstra

Using observational data and an elementary rigorous statistical fact it is easily shown that the distribution of Earth's climate is non-stationary. Examination of records of hundreds of local Industrial Era temperature histories in the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-01-21 Juan M. Restrepo , Michael E. Mann

Increasing surface temperature could lead to enhanced evaporation, reduced soil moisture availability, and more frequent droughts and heat waves. The spatiotemporal co-occurrence of such effects further drives extreme anomalies in…

Applications · Statistics 2025-06-25 Bharat Sharma , Jitendra Kumar , Auroop R. Ganguly , Forrest M. Hoffman

The quantification of the interannual component of variability in climatological time series is essential for the assessment and prediction of the El Ni\~{n}o - Southern Oscillation phenomenon. This is achieved by estimating the deviation…

Applications · Statistics 2025-11-14 Tommaso Proietti , Alessandro Giovannelli

The increasing frequency of global climate extremes has significantly impacted the terrestrial carbon cycle. Extreme weather events such as heatwaves, droughts, and extreme precipitation pose serious threats to ecosystem carbon…

Geophysics · Physics 2024-05-28 Haiyang Shi

The rise in global mean temperature is an incomplete description of warming. For many purposes, including agriculture and human life, temperature extremes may be more important than temperature means and changes in local extremes may be…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2017-08-03 J. M. Finkel , J. I. Katz

A model is proposed to explain the observed correlation between monthly fluctuations in atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperatures. The model relies on the oceans being in a temperature-dependent equilibrium with the atmosphere. When…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2008-02-22 Francois Ouellette

The El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a mode of interannual variability in the coupled equatorial Pacific coupled atmosphere/ocean system. El Ni\~no describes a state in which sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific increase…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2017-10-10 John Guckenheimer , Axel Timmermann , Henk Dijkstra , Andrew Roberts

Spectroscopic measurements at top of atmosphere are uniquely capable of attributing changes in Earth's outgoing infrared radiation field to specific greenhouse gasses. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) placed in orbit in 2002 has…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-03-16 Christopher Rentsch

Northern Chile is one of the most arid regions in the world, with precipitation mainly occurring during austral summer, between December and April 1966-2015. The aim of this study is to classify the main weather regimes derived from sea…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-09-04 Ó. Meseguer-Ruiz , N. Cortesi , J. A. Guijarro , P. Sarricolea

Improved knowledge of glacial-to-interglacial global temperature change implies that fast-feedback equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is 1.2 +/- 0.3{\deg}C (2$\sigma$) per W/m$^2$. Consistent analysis of temperature over the full…

Despite well-meaning scenarios that propose global CO2 emissions will decline presented in every IPCC report since 1988, the trend of global CO2 increase continues without significant change. Even if any individual nation manages to flatten…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-02-27 Brian P. Hanley , Pieter Tans , Edward A. G. Schuur , Geoffrey Gardiner , Steve Keen , Adam Smith

We propose a scenario that explains many of the Pacific Ocean climate phenomena that are called El Nino/ La Nina. This scenario requires an event, which we call a Super-Nino Event. It dominates other phenomena when it occurs. A template of…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2007-05-23 David H. Douglass , Drew R. Abrams , David M. Baranson , B. David Clader