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We derive a simple expression for the tail-asymptotics of an explosive birth process at a fixed observation time conditioned on non-explosion. Using the well-established exponential embedding, we apply this result to compute the tail…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-06-24 Thomas Gottfried , Stefan Grosskinsky

Motivated by the study of the time evolution of random dynamical systems arising in a vast variety of domains --- ranging from physics to ecology ---, we establish conditions for the occurrence of a non-trivial asymptotic behaviour for…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-07-15 Vladimir Belitsky , Mikhail Menshikov , Dimitri Petritis , Marina Vachkovskaia

We consider a branching random walk on $\mathbb{R}$ with a killing barrier at zero. At criticality, the process becomes eventually extinct, and the total progeny $Z$ is therefore finite. We show that the tail distribution of $Z$ displays a…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-02-02 Elie Aidekon

We study the asymptotic behavior of the marginal expected shortfall when the two random variables are asymptotic independent but positive associated, which is modeled by the so-called tail dependent coefficient. We construct an estimator of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-09-14 Juan-Juan Cai , Eni Musta

We consider the sums $S_n=\xi_1+\cdots+\xi_n$ of independent identically distributed random variables. We do not assume that the $\xi$'s have a finite mean. Under subexponential type conditions on distribution of the summands, we find the…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-03-20 D. Denisov , S. Foss , D. Korshunov

We consider a multi-type branching random walk with displacements that have either regularly varying or semi-exponential tails. We investigate the asymptotic behavior of the rightmost particle in irreducible and reducible regimes and…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-09-19 Krzysztof Kowalski

Tail Gini functional is a measure of tail risk variability for systemic risks, and has many applications in banking, finance and insurance. Meanwhile, there is growing attention on aymptotic independent pairs in quantitative risk…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-13 Zhaowen Wang , Liujun Chen , Deyuan Li

Let $\Psi_1,\Psi_2,...$ be a sequence of i.i.d. random Lipschitz functions on a complete separable metric space with unbounded metric $d$ and forward iterations $X_n$. Suppose that $X_n$ has a stationary distribution. We study the…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-08-28 Gerold Alsmeyer

We are concerned with an $M/M$-type join the shortest queue ($M/M$-JSQ for short) with $k$ parallel queues for an arbitrary positive integer $k$, where the servers may be heterogeneous. We are interested in the tail asymptotic of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-04-30 Masahiro Kobayashi , Yutaka Sakuma , Masakiyo Miyazawa

We consider solutions to so-called stochastic fixed point equation $R \stackrel{d}{=} \Psi(R)$, where $\Psi $ is a random Lipschitz function and $R$ is a random variable independent of $\Psi$. Under the assumption that $\Psi$ can be…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-06-14 Ewa Damek , Piotr Dyszewski

We consider the single server queue with service in random order. For a large class of heavy-tailed service time distributions, we determine the asymptotic behavior of the waiting time distribution. For the special case of Poisson arrivals…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-11-29 Onno Boxma , Sergey Foss , Jean-Marc Lasgouttes , Rudesindo Núñez Queija

The study of loss function distributions is critical to characterize a model's behaviour on a given machine learning problem. For example, while the quality of a model is commonly determined by the average loss assessed on a testing set,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-06 Etrit Haxholli , Marco Lorenzi

We consider a family of multivariate distributions with heavy-tailed margins and the type I elliptical dependence structure. This class of risks is common in finance, insurance, environmental and biostatistic applications. We obtain the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-01 Kai Wang , Chengxiu Ling

We study the tail asymptotics of two functionals (the maximum and the sum of the marks) of a generic cluster in two sub-models of the marked Poisson cluster process, namely the renewal Poisson cluster process and the Hawkes process. Under…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-14 Fabien Baeriswyl , Valérie Chavez-Demoulin , Olivier Wintenberger

We provide a necessary and sufficient condition for the ratio of two jointly alpha-Frechet random variables to be regularly varying. This condition is based on the spectral representation of the joint distribution and is easy to check in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-02-04 Yizao Wang

The semimartingale reflecting Brownian motion (SRBM) can be a heavy traffic limit for many server queueing networks. Asymptotic properties for stationary probabilities of the SRBM have attracted a lot of attention recently. However, many…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-07-24 Hongshuai Dai , Dawson A. Donald , Yiqiang Q. Zhao

We provide new, mild conditions for strict stationarity and ergodicity of a class of BEKK processes. By exploiting that the processes can be represented as multivariate stochastic recurrence equations, we characterize the tail behavior of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-02-25 Muneya Matsui , Rasmus Søndergaard Pedersen

This paper investigates the asymptotic behaviour of solutions to certain infinite systems of coupled recurrence relations. In particular, we obtain a characterisation of those initial values which lead to a convergent solution, and for…

Functional Analysis · Mathematics 2019-02-14 L. Paunonen , D. Seifert

In this paper, we derive higher-order expansions of $L$-statistics of independent risks $X_1, \ldots, X_n$ under conditions on the underlying distribution function $F$. The new results are applied to derive the asymptotic expansions of…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-10-08 E. Hashorva , C. Ling , Z. Peng

In this paper, we consider a two-dimensional sticky Brownian motion. Sticky Brownian motions can be viewed as time-changed semimartingale reflecting Brownian motions, which find applications in many areas including queueing theory and…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-06-13 Hongshuai Dai , Yiqiang Q. Zhao
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