Related papers: Fitting Martingales To Given Marginals
This paper introduces a martingale that characterizes two properties of evolving forecast distributions. Ideal forecasts of a future event behave as martingales, sequen- tially updating the forecast to leverage the available information as…
We consider a square-integrable semimartingale and investigate the convex order relations between its discrete, continuous and predictable quadratic variation. As the main results, we show that if the semimartingale has conditionally…
In a preceding article, we have studied a generalization of the problem of finding a martingale on a manifold whose terminal value is known. This article completes the results obtained in the first article by providing uniqueness and…
The paper develops multiplicative compensation for complex-valued semimartingales and studies some of its consequences. It is shown that the stochastic exponential of any complex-valued semimartingale with independent increments becomes a…
We introduce an efficient computational framework for solving a class of multi-marginal martingale optimal transport problems, which includes many robust pricing problems of large financial interest. Such problems are typically…
Computing reachability probabilities is a fundamental problem in the analysis of probabilistic programs. This paper aims at a comprehensive and comparative account on various martingale-based methods for over- and under-approximating…
A proof of the continuous martingale convergence theorem is provided. It relies on a classical martingale inequality and the almost sure convergence of a uniformly bounded non-negative super-martingale, after a truncation argument.
We show continuity of the martingale optimal transport optimisation problem as a functional of its marginals. This is achieved via an estimate on the projection in the nested/causal Wasserstein distance of an arbitrary coupling on to the…
New proofs are given of the existence of the compensator (or dual predictable projection) of a locally integrable c\'adl\'ag adapted process of finite variation and of the existence of the quadratic variation process for a c\'adl\'ag local…
We establish the existence of solutions to common noise McKean-Vlasov martingale problems for coefficients with low regularity. Our approach is able to handle the key challenge posed by drift coefficients that are discontinuous with respect…
Quantization provides a very natural way to preserve the convex order when approximating two ordered probability measures by two finitely supported ones. Indeed, when the convex order dominating original probability measure is compactly…
Recently, a new approach in the fine analysis of stochastic processes sample paths has been developed to predict the evolution of the local regularity under (pseudo-)differential operators. In this paper, we study the sample paths of…
In this paper, we develop necessary and sufficient conditions for the validity of a martingale approximation for the partial sums of a stationary process in terms of the maximum of consecutive errors. Such an approximation is useful for…
We review the "production approach" to estimating markups, the ratio of price to marginal cost. The approach is uniquely scalable: it requires no model of consumer demand or market structure and applies broadly across firms, industries, and…
Variational principles are important in the investigation of large classes of physical systems. They can be used both as analytical methods as well as starting points for the formulation of powerful computational techniques such as…
Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes (PDMPs) are studied in a general framework. First, different constructions are proven to be equivalent. Second, we introduce a coupling between two PDMPs following the same differential flow which…
We introduce a new non-linear optimal transport formulation for a pair of probability measures on $\mathbb{R}^d$ sharing a common barycentre, in which admissible transference plans satisfy two martingale-type constraints. This bi-martingale…
Sequential Monte Carlo methods which involve sequential importance sampling and resampling are shown to provide a versatile approach to computing probabilities of rare events. By making use of martingale representations of the sequential…
Strassen's theorem asserts that for given marginal probabilities $\mu,\nu$ there exists a martingale starting in $\mu$ and terminating in $\nu$ if and only if $\mu,\nu$ are in convex order. From a financial perspective, it guarantees the…
This paper establishes a strict mathematical relationship between an arbitrary continuous function on a compact set and its global minima, like the well-known first order optimality condition for convex and differentiable functions. By…