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Related papers: Statistics of extremes by oracle estimation

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We consider the theory for the high-dimensional generalized linear model with the Lasso. After a short review on theoretical results in literature, we present an extension of the oracle results to the case of quasi-likelihood loss. We prove…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-01-07 Sara van de Geer , Patric Müller

This paper addresses the problem of model selection in the sequence model $Y=\theta+\varepsilon\xi$, when $\xi$ is sub-Gaussian, for non-euclidian loss-functions. In this model, the Penalized Comparison to Overfitting procedure is studied…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-04-16 Claire Lacour , Pascal Massart , Vincent Rivoirard

When modeling a vector of risk variables, extreme scenarios are often of special interest. The peaks-over-thresholds method hinges on the notion that, asymptotically, the excesses over a vector of high thresholds follow a multivariate…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-09-23 Anas Mourahib , Anna Kiriliouk , Johan Segers

We emphasize that it is possible to improve the principle of unbiased risk estimation for model selection by addressing excess risk deviations in the design of penalization procedures. Indeed, we propose a modification of Akaike's…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-07-23 Adrien Saumard , Fabien Navarro

Most extreme events in real life can be faithfully modeled as random realizations from a Generalized Pareto distribution, which depends on two parameters: the scale and the shape. In many actual situations, one is mostly concerned with the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-06-30 Paul Rochet , Isabel Serra

We consider a random interval splitting process, in which the splitting rule depends on the empirical distribution of interval lengths. We show that this empirical distribution converges to a limit almost surely as the number of intervals…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-06-20 Pascal Maillard , Elliot Paquette

This article is dedicated to the estimation of the regression function when the explanatory variable is a weakly dependent process whose correlation coefficient exhibits exponential decay and has a known bounded density function. The…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-17 Karine Bertin , Lisandro Fermin , Miguel Padrino

We introduce estimation and test procedures through divergence optimization for discrete or continuous parametric models. This approach is based on a new dual representation for divergences. We treat point estimation and tests for simple…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-02 Michel Broniatowski , Amor Keziou

We study the worst-case probability that $Y$ outperforms a benchmark $X$ when the law of $Y$ lies in a Kullback-Leibler neighbourhood of the benchmark. The max-min problem over couplings admits a tractable dual (via optimal transport),…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-09-03 Ozan Hür

In this paper we introduce a new method to add a parameter to a family of distributions. The additional parameter is completely studied and a full description of its behaviour in the distribution is given. We obtain several mathematical…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-03-10 Wagner Barreto-Souza , Alexandre B. Simas

Recently attention has been drawn to practical problems with the use of unbounded Pareto distributions, for instance when there are natural upper bounds that truncate the probability tail. Aban, Meerschaert and Panorska (2006) derived the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-12-24 Jan Beirlant , Isabel Fraga Alves , Ivette Gomes , Mark M. Meerschaert

Extreme value theory has constructed asymptotic properties of the sample maximum. This study concerns probability distribution estimation of the sample maximum. The traditional approach is parametric fitting to the limiting distribution --…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-07-19 Taku Moriyama

Seemingly unrelated linear regression models are introduced in which the distribution of the errors is a finite mixture of Gaussian components. Identifiability conditions are provided. The score vector and the Hessian matrix are derived.…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-03-18 Giuliano Galimberti , Elena Scardovi , Gabriele Soffritti

We point out some pitfalls related to the concept of an oracle property as used in Fan and Li (2001, 2002, 2004) which are reminiscent of the well-known pitfalls related to Hodges' estimator. The oracle property is often a consequence of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-11-08 Hannes Leeb , Benedikt M. Poetscher

In order to assess future damage caused by natural disasters, it is desirable to estimate the damage caused by single events. So called damage functions provide -- for a natural disaster of certain magnitude -- a specific damage value.…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-09-08 J. Micha Steinhäuser , Diego Rybski , Jürgen P. Kropp

This paper studies hypothesis testing and parameter estimation in the context of the divide and conquer algorithm. In a unified likelihood based framework, we propose new test statistics and point estimators obtained by aggregating various…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-09-21 Heather Battey , Jianqing Fan , Han Liu , Junwei Lu , Ziwei Zhu

In the present work, we have investigated the problem of estimating parameters of several exponential distributions with ordered scale parameters under the linex loss function. We have considered estimating ordered scale parameters when the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-02-08 Suchandan Kayal , Lakshmi Kanta Patra

Power-law distributions occur in many situations of scientific interest and have significant consequences for our understanding of natural and man-made phenomena. Unfortunately, the detection and characterization of power laws is…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-11-12 Aaron Clauset , Cosma Rohilla Shalizi , M. E. J. Newman

Mixture distributions arise in many application areas, for example as marginal distributions or convolutions of distributions. We present a method of constructing an easily tractable discrete mixture distribution as an approximation to a…

Computation · Statistics 2017-02-20 Christian Röver , Tim Friede

We study sums of a random multiplicative function; this is an example, of number-theoretic interest, of sums of products of independent random variables (chaoses). Using martingale methods, we establish a normal approximation for the sum…

Number Theory · Mathematics 2010-12-02 Adam J. Harper