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Related papers: Statistics of extremes by oracle estimation

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In this paper we develop a novel inferential approach based on geometric records for estimating the tail index of heavy-tailed distributions. We construct a maximum likelihood estimator for the Pareto model and establish its strong…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-30 Martín Alcalde , Raúl Gouet , Miguel Lafuente , F. Javier López , Gerardo Sanz

The existence of large and extreme claims of a non-life insurance portfolio influences the ability of (re)insurers to estimate the reserve. The excess over-threshold method provides a way to capture and model the typical behaviour of…

Applications · Statistics 2019-11-07 Yinzhi Wang , Ingrid Hobæk Haff , Arne Huseby

Difficulties may arise when analyzing longitudinal data using mixed-effects models if there are nonparametric functions present in the linear predictor component. This study extends the use of semiparametric mixed-effects modeling in cases…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-05 Mozhgan Taavoni , Mohammad Arashi

The Zipf distribution also known as scale-free distribution or discrete Pareto distribution, is the particular case of Power Law distribution with support the strictly positive integers. It is a one-parameter distribution with a linear…

Applications · Statistics 2013-04-29 Marta Pérez-Casany , Aina Casellas

We consider learning with possibilistic supervision for multi-class classification. For each training instance, the supervision is a normalized possibility distribution that expresses graded plausibility over the classes. From this…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-03 Ismaïl Baaj , Pierre Marquis

We consider the estimation of two-sample integral functionals, of the type that occur naturally, for example, when the object of interest is a divergence between unknown probability densities. Our first main result is that, in wide…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-31 Thomas B. Berrett , Richard J. Samworth

Penalized least squares estimation is a popular technique in high-dimensional statistics. It includes such methods as the LASSO, the group LASSO, and the nuclear norm penalized least squares. The existing theory of these methods is not…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-07-10 Pierre C. Bellec , Guillaume Lecué , Alexandre B. Tsybakov

We introduce a trimmed version of the Hill estimator for the index of a heavy-tailed distribution, which is robust to perturbations in the extreme order statistics. In the ideal Pareto setting, the estimator is essentially finite-sample…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-11-15 Shrijita Bhattacharya , Michael Kallitsis , Stilian Stoev

We study the problem of estimating the distribution of the return of a policy using an offline dataset that is not generated from the policy, i.e., distributional offline policy evaluation (OPE). We propose an algorithm called Fitted…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-01 Runzhe Wu , Masatoshi Uehara , Wen Sun

We model equilibrium allocations in a distribution network as the solution of a linear program (LP) which minimizes the cost of unserved demands across nodes in the network. The constraints in the LP dictate that once a given node's supply…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-06-20 Jose Blanchet , Juan Li , Marvin K. Nakayama

In the presence of a missing response, reweighting the complete case subsample by the inverse of nonmissing probability is both intuitive and easy to implement. When the population totals of some auxiliary variables are known and when the…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-10-16 Kwun Chuen Gary Chan , Sheung Chi Phillip Yam

Peaks-over-threshold analysis using the generalized Pareto distribution is widely applied in modelling tails of univariate random variables, but much information may be lost when complex extreme events are studied using univariate results.…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-14 Raphaël de Fondeville , Anthony C. Davison

The so-called Pareto-Levy or power-law distribution has been successfully used as a model to describe probabilities associated to extreme variations of worldwide stock markets indexes data and it has the form $Pr(X>x) ~ x**(-alpha) for…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-11-10 H. F. Coronel-Brizio , A. R. Hernandez-Montoya

The problem of predicting independent Poisson random variables is commonly encountered in real-life practice. Simultaneous predictive distributions for independent Poisson observables are investigated, and the performance of predictive…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-12-06 Xiao Li , Fumiyasu Komaki

This expository note describes how to apply the method of maximum likelihood to estimate the parameters of the ``$q$-exponential'' distributions introduced by Tsallis and collaborators. It also describes the relationship of these…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Cosma Rohilla Shalizi

We consider the extreme value statistics of $N$ independent and identically distributed random variables, which is a classic problem in probability theory. When $N\to\infty$, fluctuations around the maximum of the variables are described by…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-07-14 Lior Zarfaty , Eli Barkai , David A. Kessler

We give oracle inequalities on procedures which combines quantization and variable selection via a weighted Lasso $k$-means type algorithm. The results are derived for a general family of weights, which can be tuned to size the influence of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-07-07 Clément Levrard

We conduct a KL-divergence based procedure for testing elliptical distributions. The procedure simultaneously takes into account the two defining properties of an elliptically distributed random vector: independence between length and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-04 Yin Tang , Yanyuan Ma , Bing Li

This paper contributes to answering a question that is of crucial importance in risk management and extreme value theory: How to select the threshold above which one assumes that the tail of a distribution follows a generalized Pareto…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-27 Ingo Hoffmann , Christoph J. Börner

This article deals with goodness-of-fit test for the Cauchy distribution. Some tests based on Kullback-Leibler information are proposed, and shown to be consistent. Monte Carlo evidence indicates that the tests have satisfactory…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-06-27 M. Mahdizadeh , Ehsan Zamanzade