Related papers: Will the announced influenza pandemic really happe…

Pandemics have the potential to cause immense disruption and damage to communities and societies. In this paper, we model the Influenza Pandemic of 2009. We propose a hybrid model to determine how the pandemic spreads through the world. The…

In this work we describe a non-parametric disease model that links the temporal change of the prevalence of an infectious disease to the incidence and the recovery rates. The model is only based on the common epidemiological measures…

This article reviews quantitative methods to estimate the basic reproduction number of pandemic influenza, a key threshold quantity to help determine the intensity of interventions required to control the disease. Although it is difficult…

Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and…

Infectious diseases cause more than 13 million deaths a year, worldwide. Globalization, urbanization, climate change, and ecological pressures have significantly increased the risk of a global pandemic. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic-the…

Traditional epidemic models consider that individual processes occur at constant rates. That is, an infected individual has a constant probability per unit time of recovering from infection after contagion. This assumption certainly fails…

Finding optimal policies to reduce the morbidity and mortality of the ongoing pandemic is a top public health priority. Using a compartmental model with age structure and vaccination status, we examined the effect of age specific scheduling…

The Influenza Pandemic of 1918-1919, also called Spanish Flu Pandemic, was one of the severest pandemics in history. It is thought that the First World War much influenced the spread of the pandemic. In this paper, we model the pandemic…

Influenza is a contagious respiratory illness that causes significant human morbidity and mortality, affecting 5-15% of the population in a typical epidemic season. Human influenza epidemics are caused by types A and B, with roughly 25% of…

Seasonal influenza epidemics cause consistent, considerable, widespread loss annually in terms of economic burden, morbidity, and mortality. With access to accurate and reliable forecasts of a current or upcoming influenza epidemic's…

We examine salient trends of influenza pandemics in Australia, a rapidly urbanizing nation. To do so, we implement state-of-the-art influenza transmission and progression models within a large-scale stochastic computer simulation, generated…

Influenza remains a significant burden on health systems. Effective responses rely on the timely understanding of the magnitude and the evolution of an outbreak. For monitoring purposes, data on severe cases of influenza in England are…

Knowledge of the severity of an influenza outbreak is crucial for informing and monitoring appropriate public health responses, both during and after an epidemic. However, case-fatality, case-intensive care admission and…

We study the spatio-temporal patterns of the proportion of influenza B out of laboratory confirmations of both influenza A and B, with data from 139 countries and regions downloaded from the FluNet compiled by the World Health Organization,…

Influenza Pandemic of 1957-1958, also called Asian Flu Pandemic, was one of the most widespread pandemics in history. In this paper, we model the pandemic, considering the effect of the Cold War. There were some restrictions between Western…

Accurate and representative data is vital for precisely reporting the impact of influenza in healthcare systems. Northern hemisphere winter 2022/23 experienced the most substantial influenza wave since the COVID-19 pandemic began in 2020.…

Much traditional statistical modelling assumes that the outcome variables of interest are independent of each other when conditioned on the explanatory variables. This assumption is strongly violated in the case of infectious diseases,…

Consider a uniformly mixing population which grows as a super-critical linear birth and death process. At some time an infectious disease (of SIR or SEIR type) is introduced by one individual being infected from outside. It is shown that…

The unfolding of pandemic influenza A(H1N1) for Fall 2009 in the Northern Hemisphere is still uncertain. Plans for vaccination campaigns and vaccine trials are underway, with the first batches expected to be available early October. Several…

We study the global spatio-temporal patterns of influenza dynamics. This is achieved by analysing and modelling weekly laboratory confirmed cases of influenza A and B from 138 countries between January 2006 and May 2014. The data were…