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The annual influenza outbreak leads to significant public health and economic burdens making it desirable to have prompt and accurate probabilistic forecasts of the disease spread. The United States Centers for Disease Control and…
Aim: To assess the frequency of secondary transmissions of primary pneumonic plague relative to the onset of fever. Methods: A simple backcalculation method was employed to estimate the frequency of secondary transmissions relative to…
Infectious disease outbreaks have precipitated a profusion of mathematical models. Epidemic curves predicted by these models are typically qualitatively similar, despite distinct model assumptions, but there is no theoretical explanation…
Epidemic models are used to analyze the progression or outcome of an epidemic under different control policies like vaccinations, quarantines, lockdowns, use of face-masks, pharmaceutical interventions, etc. When these models accurately…
Seasonal influenza presents an ongoing challenge to public health. The rapid evolution of the flu virus necessitates annual vaccination campaigns, but the decision to get vaccinated or not in a given year is largely voluntary, at least in…
Health-policy planning requires evidence on the burden that epidemics place on healthcare systems. Multiple, often dependent, datasets provide a noisy and fragmented signal from the unobserved epidemic process including transmission and…
With a simple phenomenological metapopulation model, which characterizes the invasion process of an influenza pandemic from a source to a subpopulation at risk, we compare the efficiency of inter- and intra-population interventions in…
The containment of epidemic spreading is a major challenge in science. Vaccination, whenever available, is the best way to prevent the spreading, because it eventually immunizes individuals. However, vaccines are not perfect, and total…
Conventional wisdom holds that influenza A and B are such genetically dissimilar viruses that infection with one cannot confer cross-immunity to the other. However, our examination of the records of the past 25 influenza seasons in the U.S.…
Infectious disease forecasts can reduce mortality and morbidity by supporting evidence-based public health decision making. Most epidemic models train on surveillance and structured data (e.g. weather, mobility, media), missing contextual…
This study uses data from the 1918-1920 influenza pandemic in Japan along with newly digitized and complete census records on births and infant deaths to analyze mortality selection in utero. I find that fetal exposure to the influenza…
Accurate and reliable predictions of infectious disease dynamics can be valuable to public health organizations that plan interventions to decrease or prevent disease transmission. A great variety of models have been developed for this…
Forecasting infectious disease incidence can provide important information to guide public health planning, yet is difficult because epidemic dynamics are complex. Current mechanistic and statistical approaches often struggle to capture…
The emergence and spread of deadly pandemics has repeatedly occurred throughout history, causing widespread infections and loss of life. The rapid spread of pandemics have made governments across the world adopt a range of actions,…
A model describing the dynamics related to the spreading of non-lethal infectious diseases in a fixed-size population is proposed. The model consists of a non-linear delay-differential equation describing the time evolution of the increment…
Influenza is an infectious disease with the potential to become a pandemic, and hence, forecasting its prevalence is an important undertaking for planning an effective response. Research has found that web search activity can be used to…
This work is devoted to the study of the probability of immunity, i.e. the effect occurs whether exposed or not. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for non-immunity and $\epsilon$-bounded immunity, i.e. the probability of…
As a dedicated follower of sports statistics and with the MLB season beginning in late March, I set out to predict how many wins each team would accumulate by the end of the 162 game season. The goal was to build a simulation framework…
Throughout the Covid-19 pandemic, a significant amount of effort had been put into developing techniques that predict the number of infections under various assumptions about the public policy and non-pharmaceutical interventions. While…
This article examines how diseases on random networks spread in time. The disease is described by a probability distribution function for the number of infected and recovered individuals, and the probability distribution is described by a…