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We give elementary examples within a framework for studying decisions under uncertainty where probabilities are only roughly known. The framework, in gambling terms, is that the size of a bet is proportional to the gambler's perceived…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-12-19 David J. Aldous , F. Thomas Bruss

We explore whether ambiguous communication can be beneficial to the sender in a persuasion problem, when the receiver (and possibly the sender) is ambiguity averse. Our analysis highlights the necessity of using a collection of experiments…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-02-19 Xiaoyu Cheng , Peter Klibanoff , Sujoy Mukerji , Ludovic Renou

One major function of social networks (e.g., massive online social networks) is the dissemination of information, such as scientific knowledge, news, and rumors. Information can be propagated by the users of the network via natural…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2011-06-28 Dmitry Zinoviev , Vy Duong

We study strategic information transmission in a hierarchical setting where information gets transmitted through a chain of agents up to a decision maker whose action is of importance to every agent. This situation could arise whenever an…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2022-07-14 Majid Mahzoon

Quantum game theory is the study of strategic behavior by agents with access to quantum technology. Broadly speaking, this technology can be employed in either of two ways: As part of a randomization device or as part of a communications…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2011-10-31 Steven E. Landsburg

In various economic environments, people observe other people with whom they strategically interact. We can model such information-sharing relations as an information network, and the strategic interactions as a game on the network. When…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-11-27 Nathan Canen , Jacob Schwartz , Kyungchul Song

Modeling social interactions based on individual behavior has always been an area of interest, but prior literature generally presumes rational behavior. Thus, such models may miss out on capturing the effects of biases humans are…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-03-11 Nanda Kishore Sreenivas , Shrisha Rao

Game theory has been increasingly applied in settings where the game is not known outright, but has to be estimated by sampling. For example, meta-games that arise in multi-agent evaluation can only be accessed by running a succession of…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2021-01-25 Tabish Rashid , Cheng Zhang , Kamil Ciosek

One major function of social networks (e.g., massive online social networks) is the dissemination of information such as scientific knowledge, news, and rumors. Information can be propagated by the users of the network via natural…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2010-08-13 Dmitry Zinoviev , Vy Duong

We study a variation of the minority game. There are N agents. Each has to choose between one of two alternatives everyday, and there is reward to each member of the smaller group. The agents cannot communicate with each other, but try to…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2015-05-27 Deepak Dhar , V. Sasidevan , Bikas K. Chakrabarti

Players are statistical learners who learn about payoffs from data. They may interpret the same data differently, but have common knowledge of a class of learning procedures. I propose a metric for the analyst's "confidence" in a strategic…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2020-07-13 Annie Liang

Online learning with expert advice is widely used in various machine learning tasks. It considers the problem where a learner chooses one from a set of experts to take advice and make a decision. In many learning problems, experts may be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-17 Pouya M Ghari , Yanning Shen

Bayesian experts who are exposed to different evidence often make contradictory probabilistic forecasts. An aggregator, ignorant of the underlying model, uses this to calculate her own forecast. We use the notions of scoring rules and…

Economics · Quantitative Finance 2018-02-13 Itai Areili , Yakov Babichenko , Rann Smorodinsky

A large body of research is currently investigating on the connection between machine learning and game theory. In this work, game theory notions are injected into a preference learning framework. Specifically, a preference learning problem…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-12-20 Mirko Polato , Fabio Aiolli

The main approach to evaluating communication is by assessing how well it facilitates coordination. If two or more individuals can coordinate through communication, it is generally assumed that they understand one another. We investigate…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-09-30 Nikolaos Kondylidis , Anil Yaman , Frank van Harmelen , Erman Acar , Annette ten Teije

The problem of estimating event truths from conflicting agent opinions in a social network is investigated. An autoencoder learns the complex relationships between event truths, agent reliabilities and agent observations. A Bayesian network…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-26 Jielong Yang , Wee Peng Tay

This paper examines strategic trading under incomplete information, where firms lack full knowledge of key aspects of their competitors' trading strategies such as target sizes and market impact models. We extend previous work on…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2025-03-25 Neil A. Chriss

Bayes belief networks and influence diagrams are tools for constructing coherent probabilistic representations of uncertain knowledge. The process of constructing such a network to represent an expert's knowledge is used to illustrate a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-11 Max Henrion

This paper proposes a method to construct an adaptive agent that is universal with respect to a given class of experts, where each expert is an agent that has been designed specifically for a particular environment. This adaptive control…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2010-04-13 Pedro A. Ortega , Daniel A. Braun

Using the Minority Game model we study a broad spectrum of problems of market mechanism. We study the role of different types of agents: producers, speculators as well as noise traders. The central issue here is the information flow :…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 Damien Challet , Matteo Marsili , Yi-Cheng Zhang