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We consider the problem of finding confidence intervals for the risk of forecasting the future of a stationary, ergodic stochastic process, using a model estimated from the past of the process. We show that a bootstrap procedure provides…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-12-01 Robert Lunde , Cosma Rohilla Shalizi

We develop and implement a novel fast bootstrap for dependent data. Our scheme is based on the i.i.d. resampling of the smoothed moment indicators. We characterize the class of parametric and semi-parametric estimation problems for which…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-19 Davide La Vecchia , Alban Moor , Olivier Scaillet

In this paper, we show an innovative way to construct bootstrap confidence interval of a signal estimated based on a univariate LSTM model. We take three different types of bootstrap methods for dependent set up. We prescribe some useful…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-02 Shankhyajyoti De , Arabin Kumar Dey , Deepak Gauda

In this paper we consider the problem of bootstrapping a class of spatial regression models when the sampling sites are generated by a (possibly nonuniform) stochastic design and are irregularly spaced. It is shown that the natural…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 S. N. Lahiri , Jun Zhu

We report on a broader evaluation of statistical bootstrap resampling methods as a tool for pixel-level calibration and imaging fidelity assessment in radio interferometry. Pixel-level imaging fidelity assessment is a challenging problem,…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2015-05-14 Athol Kemball , Adam Martinsek , Modhurita Mitra , Hsin-Fang Chiang

Deep learning requires regularization mechanisms to reduce overfitting and improve generalization. We address this problem by a new regularization method based on distributional robust optimization. The key idea is to modify the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-08 Aurora Cobo Aguilera , Antonio Artés-Rodríguez , Fernando Pérez-Cruz , Pablo Martínez Olmos

This research introduces a novel approach to resampling periodically correlated (PC) time series using bandpass filters for frequency separation called the Variable Bandpass Periodic Block Bootstrap (VBPBB) and then examines the significant…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-10 Edward Valachovic

By amalgamating data from disparate sources, the resulting integrated dataset becomes a valuable resource for statistical analysis. In probabilistic record linkage, the effectiveness of such integration relies on the availability of linkage…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-10 Siu-Ming Tam , Min Wang , Alicia Rambaldi , Dehua Tao

The quality of a summarization evaluation metric is quantified by calculating the correlation between its scores and human annotations across a large number of summaries. Currently, it is unclear how precise these correlation estimates are,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-07-28 Daniel Deutsch , Rotem Dror , Dan Roth

Confidence intervals for the means of multiple normal populations are often based on a hierarchical normal model. While commonly used interval procedures based on such a model have the nominal coverage rate on average across a population of…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-12-28 Chaoyu Yu , Peter D. Hoff

Block-coordinate descent (BCD) is a popular framework for large-scale regularized optimization problems with block-separable structure. Existing methods have several limitations. They often assume that subproblems can be solved exactly at…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-11-05 Ching-pei Lee , Stephen J. Wright

Resampling methods such as the bootstrap have proven invaluable in the field of machine learning. However, the applicability of traditional bootstrap methods is limited when dealing with large streams of dependent data, such as time series…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-28 Nicolai Palm , Thomas Nagler

Kernel-based estimators such as local polynomial estimators in regression discontinuity designs are often evaluated at multiple bandwidths as a form of sensitivity analysis. However, if in the reported results, a researcher selects the…

Applications · Statistics 2018-03-29 Timothy B. Armstrong , Michal Kolesár

We consider the construction of confidence intervals for treatment effects estimated using panel models with interactive fixed effects. We first use the factor-based matrix completion technique proposed by Bai and Ng (2021) to estimate the…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-02-25 Xingyu Li , Yan Shen , Qiankun Zhou

We consider the task of constructing confidence intervals with differential privacy. We propose two private variants of the non-parametric bootstrap, which privately compute the median of the results of multiple "little" bootstraps run on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-05 Karan Chadha , John Duchi , Rohith Kuditipudi

We propose a double bootstrap procedure for reducing coverage error in the confidence intervals of descriptive statistics for independent and identically distributed functional data. Through a series of Monte Carlo simulations, we compare…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-03 Han Lin Shang

The identification of causal effects in observational studies typically relies on two standard assumptions: unconfoundedness and overlap. However, both assumptions are often questionable in practice: unconfoundedness is inherently…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-17 Han Cui , Xinran Li

Unlike in the traditional statistical modeling for which a user typically hand-specify a prior, Neural Processes (NPs) implicitly define a broad class of stochastic processes with neural networks. Given a data stream, NP learns a stochastic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-28 Juho Lee , Yoonho Lee , Jungtaek Kim , Eunho Yang , Sung Ju Hwang , Yee Whye Teh

Machine learning models support decision-making, yet the reasons behind their predictions are opaque. Clear and reliable explanations help users make informed decisions and avoid blindly trusting model outputs. However, many existing…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Francisco Mateus Rocha Filho , Ajalmar Rêgo da Rocha Neto , Thiago Alves Rocha

The performance of spectral clustering can be considerably improved via regularization, as demonstrated empirically in Amini et. al (2012). Here, we provide an attempt at quantifying this improvement through theoretical analysis. Under the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-07-22 Antony Joseph , Bin Yu
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