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In this paper, a new approach to computing the generalisation performance is presented that assumes the distribution of risks, $\rho(r)$, for a learning scenario is known. From this, the expected error of a learning machine using empirical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-27 Antonia Marcu , Adam Prügel-Bennett

The main objective of this paper is to look from the unique point of view at some phenomena arising in different areas of probability theory and mathematical statistics. We will try to understand what is common between classical…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-03-01 Oleg Lepski

This paper explores certain kinds of empirical process with respect to the components of multivariate Gaussian. We put forward some finite sample bounds which hold for multivariate Gaussian under general dependence. We give necessary and…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-07-03 Jikai Hou

In this work, the probability of an event under some joint distribution is bounded by measuring it with the product of the marginals instead (which is typically easier to analyze) together with a measure of the dependence between the two…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2020-10-22 Amedeo Roberto Esposito , Michael Gastpar , Ibrahim Issa

For a class $F$ of complex-valued functions on a set $D$, we denote by $g_n(F)$ its sampling numbers, i.e., the minimal worst-case error on $F$, measured in $L_2$, that can be achieved with a recovery algorithm based on $n$ function…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-05-15 Matthieu Dolbeault , David Krieg , Mario Ullrich

In this paper, we study finite-sample properties of the least squares estimator in first order autoregressive processes. By leveraging a result from decoupling theory, we derive upper bounds on the probability that the estimate deviates by…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-26 Rodrigo A. González , Cristian R. Rojas

The paper presents two results. The first one provides separate conditions for the upper and lower estimate of the distribution of the exit time from balls of a random walk on a weighted graph. The main result of the paper is that the lower…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-01-29 Andras Telcs

The Bayesian framework is ideally suited for induction problems. The probability of observing $x_t$ at time $t$, given past observations $x_1...x_{t-1}$ can be computed with Bayes' rule if the true distribution $\mu$ of the sequences…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2011-11-09 Marcus Hutter

Uniform deviation bounds limit the difference between a model's expected loss and its loss on an empirical sample uniformly for all models in a learning problem. As such, they are a critical component to empirical risk minimization. In this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-02-28 Olivier Bachem , Mario Lucic , S. Hamed Hassani , Andreas Krause

We show that under minimal assumptions on a class of functions $\mathcal{H}$ defined on a probability space $(\mathcal{X},\mu)$, there is a threshold $\Delta_0$ satisfying the following: for every $\Delta\geq\Delta_0$, with probability at…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-05 Daniel Bartl , Shahar Mendelson

The study of Fourier transforms of probability measures on fractal sets plays an important role in recent research. Faster decay rates are known to yield enhanced results in areas such as metric number theory. This paper focuses on…

Classical Analysis and ODEs · Mathematics 2024-12-24 Ying Wai Lee

We develop a class of non-life reserving models using a stable-1/2 random bridge to simulate the accumulation of paid claims, allowing for an essentially arbitrary choice of a priori distribution for the ultimate loss. Taking an…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-03-17 Edward Hoyle , Lane P. Hughston , Andrea Macrina

Let $G$ be a compact Lie group. Suppose $g_1, \dots, g_k$ are chosen independently from the Haar measure on $G$. Let $\mathcal{A} = \cup_{i \in [k]} \mathcal{A}_i$, where, $\mathcal{A}_i := \{g_i\} \cup \{g_i^{-1}\}$. Let…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-11-15 Hariharan Narayanan

We prove the first generalization bound for large-margin halfspaces that is asymptotically tight in the tradeoff between the margin, the fraction of training points with the given margin, the failure probability and the number of training…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-20 Kasper Green Larsen , Natascha Schalburg

We study the Lyapunov exponents of models that are close to skew product systems over a C__ uniformly expanding transformation of the circle. For a continuous fibre map $\phi$, analytic, increasing, and convex in the fibre variable, we…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-11-14 Thomas Morand

We present a series of new and more favorable margin-based learning guarantees that depend on the empirical margin loss of a predictor. We give two types of learning bounds, both distribution-dependent and valid for general families, in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-30 Corinna Cortes , Mehryar Mohri , Ananda Theertha Suresh

Suppose $\widehat\theta_n$ is a strongly consistent estimator for $\theta_0$ in some i.i.d. situation. Let $N_\varepsilon$ and $Q_\varepsilon$ be respectively the last $n$ and the total number of $n$ for which $\widehat\theta_n$ is at least…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-11 Nils Lid Hjort , Grete Fenstad

We study asymptotic probabilities of attaining the maximum in heterogeneous Gaussian samples. In the two-group setting, the first sample has variance $1$ and size $n_1$, while the second has variance $\sigma^2>1$ and size $n_2$. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-21 Chunxu Zhang , Baiqi Miao , Tiantian Mao

We propose a probability distribution for multivariate binary random variables. The probability distribution is expressed as principal minors of the parameter matrix, which is a matrix analogous to the inverse covariance matrix in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-08 Takashi Arai

We consider high-order stochastic processes $x(t)$ described by the Langevin equation $\frac{{{d^m}x\left( t \right)}}{{d{t^m}}}= \sqrt{2D} \xi(t)$, where $\xi(t)$ is a delta-correlated Gaussian noise with zero mean, and $D$ is the strength…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-06-18 Lulu Tian , Hanshuang Chen , Guofeng Li