Related papers: Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim?
In this paper, we present a semiparametric model for describing the effect of temperature on Antarctic ice accumulation on a paleoclimatic time scale. The model is motivated by sharp ups and downs in the rate of ice accumulation apparent…
Many regions across the globe broke their surface temperature records in recent years, further sparking concerns about the impending arrival of "tipping points" later in the 21st century. This study analyzes observed global surface…
In this work, we propose an approach to teaching global warming adapted to the new high school curricula. The aim is to build a link between CO$_2$ emissions and the rise in the Earth's average temperature, based as far as possible on…
We fit 12 independent surface temperature time series (zones of latitude), 6 land- and 6 ocean-based, with a Gaussian (centered around WW2) on a quadratic background. The four polar zones are unusable. Each of the remaining 8 shows evidence…
The provision of accurate methods for predicting the climate response to anthropogenic and natural forcings is a key contemporary scientific challenge. Using a simplified and efficient open-source general circulation model of the atmosphere…
Heat extremes are projected to severely impact humanity and with increasing geographic disparities. Global South countries are more exposed to heat extremes and have reduced adaptation capacity. One documented source of such adaptation…
In light of the rapid recent retreat of Arctic sea ice, a number of studies have discussed the possibility of a critical threshold (or "tipping point") beyond which the ice-albedo feedback causes the ice cover to melt away in an…
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) is one of several organizations that have presented goals for future CO2 emissions from commercial aviation with the intent of alleviating the associated environmental impacts. These goals…
Assessing the consistency between short-term global temperature trends in observations and climate model projections is a challenging problem. While climate models capture many processes governing short-term climate fluctuations, they are…
We need enough new carbon sinks to 1) cancel out any continuing use of fossil fuels, 2) overcome the delayed effect of earlier excesses, and then 3) lower atmospheric CO2 concentrations to the old maximum value of 280 ppm. We need to sink…
This paper reports observations of regional and global upper stratosphere temperature (UST) and surface temperature, as well as various climate drivers including greenhouse gases (GHGs), ozone, aerosols, solar variability, snow cover…
The atmospheric temperatures and concentrations of Earth's five most important, greenhouse gases, H$_2$O, CO$_2$, O$_3$, N$_2$O and CH$_4$ control the cloud-free, thermal radiative flux from the Earth to outer space. Over 1/3 million lines…
Carbon dioxide ice clouds are thought to play an important role for cold terrestrial planets with thick CO2 dominated atmospheres. Various previous studies showed that a scattering greenhouse effect by carbon dioxide ice clouds could result…
Rapid changes in climatic conditions threaten both socioeconomic and ecological systems, as these might not be able to adapt or to migrate at the same pace as that of global warming. In particular, an increase of weather and climate…
The IPCC AR6 assessment of the impacts and risks associated with projected climate changes for the 21st century is both alarming and ambiguous. According to computer projections, the global surface may warm from 1.3 to 8.0 {\deg}C by 2100,…
Global fossil CO2 emissions in 2020 decreased 5.4%, from 36.7 Gt CO2 in 2019 to 34.8 Gt CO2 in 2020, an unprecedented decline of ~1.9 Gt CO2. We project that global fossil CO2 emissions in 2021 will rebound 4.9% (4.1% to 5.7%) compared to…
Ultraviolet (UV) absorption cross sections are an essential ingredient of photochemical atmosphere models. Exoplanet searches have unveiled a large population of short-period objects with hot atmospheres, very different from what we find in…
This paper contributes to the limited literature on the temperature sensitivity of residential energy demand on a global scale. Using a Bayesian Partial Pooling model, we estimate country-specific intercepts and slopes, focusing on…
Cycling of carbon dioxide between the atmosphere and interior of rocky planets can stabilize global climate and enable planetary surface temperatures above freezing over geologic time. However, variations in global carbon budget and…
Assuming the state-of-the-science estimates for the remaining carbon budget of carbon dioxide emissions, our modeling study supports the conclusion that it is still possible to meet the 1.5 deg C warming target even with current wind/solar…