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Many questions in experimental mathematics are fundamentally inductive in nature. Here we demonstrate how Bayesian inference --the logic of partial beliefs-- can be used to quantify the evidence that finite data provide in favor of a…

Applications · Statistics 2017-06-20 Quentin F. Gronau , Eric-Jan Wagenmakers

This perspective chapter briefly surveys: (1) past growth in the use of Bayesian methods in astrophysics; (2) current misconceptions about both frequentist and Bayesian statistical inference that hinder wider adoption of Bayesian methods by…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2016-12-07 Thomas J. Loredo

The present article is the reply to the discussion of our earlier "Not only defended but also applied" (arXiv:1006.5366, to appear in The American Statistician) that arose from our memory of a particularly intemperate anti-Bayesian…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2012-10-29 Andrew Gelman , Christian P. Robert

Since its introduction by Fisher, the method of hypothesis testing that relies on computing error probabilities has witnessed several developments. Perhaps the most significant development was the seminal contributions of Neyman and Pearson…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2026-05-08 Reason Machete

Here we focus on the description of the mechanisms behind the process of information aggregation and decision making, a basic step to understand emergent phenomena in society, such as trends, information spreading or the wisdom of crowds.…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-04-15 Víctor M. Eguíluz , N. Masuda , J. Fernández-Gracia

Bayesian learning has emerged as a compelling and vital research direction in the field of structural dynamics, offering a probabilistic lens to understand and refine the analysis of complex dynamical systems. This review meticulously…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2025-06-03 Wang-Ji Yan , Lin-Feng Mei , Yuan-Wei Yin , Jiang Mo , Costas Papadimitriou , Ka-Veng Yuen , Michael Beer

We present a comparative study between classical probability and quantum probability from the Bayesian viewpoint, where probability is construed as our rational degree of belief on whether a given statement is true. From this viewpoint,…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-05-05 Tsubasa Ichikawa

Despite the extraordinary successes the two great bastions of $20^{th}$ century science (Quantum Theory and General Relativity) are troubled with serious conceptual and mathematical difficulties. As a result, further growth of fundamental…

Popular Physics · Physics 2007-05-23 Bhag C. Chauhan

To handle with inverse problems, two probabilistic approaches have been proposed: the maximum entropy on the mean (MEM) and the Bayesian estimation (BAYES). The main object of this presentation is to compare these two approaches which are…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 A. Mohammad-Djafari

We propose a robust Bayesian method for economic models that can be rejected by some data distributions. The econometrician starts with a refutable structural assumption which can be written as the intersection of several assumptions. To…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-09-18 Moyu Liao

In this paper, we investigate the reasons that the Bayesian estimator of the tail probability is always higher than the frequentist estimator. Sufficient conditions for this phenomenon are established both by using Jensen's Inequality and…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-07 Nan Shen , Bárbara González , Luis Raúl Pericchi

There is a third way of implementing probability models and practicing. This is to answer questions put in terms of observables. This eliminates frequentist hypothesis testing and Bayes factors and it also eliminates parameter estimation.…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2015-08-12 William M. Briggs

Bayesian statistics has gained great momentum since the computational developments of the 1990s. Gradually, advances in Bayesian methodology and software have made Bayesian techniques much more accessible to applied statisticians and, in…

Computation · Statistics 2020-11-04 Jim Albert , Jingchen Hu

We argue that the Bayesian paradigm, of a prior which represents the beliefs of the statistician before observing the data, is not feasible in ultra-high-dimensional models. We claim that natural priors that represent the a priori beliefs…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-05 Ya'acov Ritov

In this paper, a Bayesian approach is developed for simultaneously comparing multiple experimental treatments with a common control treatment in an exploratory clinical trial. The sample size is set to ensure that, at the end of the study,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-11-14 John Whitehead , Faye Cleary , Amanda Turner

The measurement of the efficiency of an event selection is always an important part of the analysis of experimental data. The statistical techniques which are needed to determine the efficiency and its uncertainty are reviewed. Frequentist…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2012-08-28 Diego Casadei

Bayesian inference is attractive for its coherence and good frequentist properties. However, it is a common experience that eliciting a honest prior may be difficult and, in practice, people often take an {\em empirical Bayes} approach,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-04-09 Sonia Petrone , Judith Rousseau , Catia Scricciolo

The emergent field of probabilistic numerics has thus far lacked clear statistical principals. This paper establishes Bayesian probabilistic numerical methods as those which can be cast as solutions to certain inverse problems within the…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-11-15 Jon Cockayne , Chris Oates , Tim Sullivan , Mark Girolami

Many physicists think that the maximum entropy formalism is a straightforward application of Bayesian statistical ideas to statistical mechanics. Some even say that statistical mechanics is just the general Bayesian logic of inductive…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 Cosma Rohilla Shalizi

Reasoning is key to many decision making processes. It requires consolidating a set of rule-like premises that are often associated with degrees of uncertainty and observations to draw conclusions. In this work, we address both the case…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-15 Timo Pierre Schrader , Lukas Lange , Simon Razniewski , Annemarie Friedrich
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