Related papers: Escaping the Brownian stalkers
The value of stocks, indices and other assets, are examples of stochastic processes with unpredictable dynamics. In this paper, we discuss asymmetries in short term price movements that can not be associated with a long term positive trend.…
It is believed by the majority today that the efficient market hypothesis is imperfect because of market irrationality. Using the physical concepts and mathematical structures of quantum mechanics, we construct an econophysics framework for…
In order to simulate the complex phenomena manifested in stock markets, we introduce a continuous asynchronous model in which millions of individual traders interact through a central orders matching mechanism, just as it happens in real…
This paper proposes a theory of stock market predictability patterns based on a model of heterogeneous beliefs. In a discrete finite time framework, some agents receive news about an asset's fundamental value through a noisy signal. The…
We generalise the description of the dynamics of the order book of financial markets in terms of a Brownian particle embedded in a fluid of incoming, exiting and annihilating particles by presenting a model of the velocity on each side (buy…
We study the mean escape time in a market model with stochastic volatility. The process followed by the volatility is the Cox Ingersoll and Ross process which is widely used to model stock price fluctuations. The market model can be…
We propose a three-state microscopic opinion formation model for the purpose of simulating the dynamics of financial markets. In order to mimic the heterogeneous composition of the mass of investors in a market, the agent-based model…
The trade of a fixed stock can be regarded as the basic process that measures its momentary price. The stock price is exactly known only at the time of sale when the stock is between traders, that is, only in the case when the owner is…
Financial markets have long since been modeled using stochastic methods such as Brownian motion, and more recently, rough volatility models have been built using fractional Brownian motion. This fractional aspect brings memory into the…
We investigate the random walk of prices by developing a simple model relating the properties of the signs and absolute values of individual price changes to the diffusion rate (volatility) of prices at longer time scales. We show that this…
This paper explores stochastic modeling approaches to elucidate the intricate dynamics of stock prices and volatility in financial markets. Beginning with an overview of Brownian motion and its historical significance in finance, we delve…
This article considers a model for alternative processes for securities prices and compares this model with actual return data of several securities. The distributions of returns that appear in the model can be Gaussian as well as…
The stock market prediction has always been crucial for stakeholders, traders and investors. We developed an ensemble Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) model that includes two-time frequencies (annual and daily parameters) in order to predict…
In this paper we consider a new mathematical extension of the Black-Scholes model in which the stochastic time and stock share price evolution is described by two independent random processes. The parent process is Brownian, and the…
We consider a simplified version of the Wealth Game, which is an agent-based financial market model with many interesting features resembling the real stock market. Market makers are not present in the game so that the majority traders are…
In this paper, we propose a minimal model beyond geometric Brownian motion that aims to describe price actions with market inefficiency. From simple financial theory considerations, we arrive at a simple two-variable hidden Markovian time…
We present a model of financial markets originally proposed for a turbulent flow, as a dynamic basis of its intermittent behavior. Time evolution of the price change is assumed to be described by Brownian motion in a power-law potential,…
We study how the phenomenon of contagion can take place in the network of the world's stock exchanges due to the behavioral trait "blindeness to small changes". On large scale individual, the delay in the collective response may…
This paper presents a novel approach to predicting stock prices using technical analysis. By utilizing Ito's lemma and Euler-Maruyama methods, the researchers develop Heston and Geometric Brownian Motion models that take into account…
A statistical physics model for the time evolutions of stock portfolios is proposed. In this model the time series of price changes are coded into the sequences of up and down spins. The Hamiltonian of the system is introduced and is…