Related papers: On Directed Information and Gambling
We modify the concept of quantum strategic game to make it useful for extensive form games. We prove that our modification allows to consider the normal representation of any finite extensive game using the fundamental concepts of quantum…
Traffic analysis is a type of attack on secure communications systems, in which the adversary extracts useful patterns and information from the observed traffic. This paper improves and extends an efficient traffic analysis attack, called…
Coevolutionary game dynamics is the result of players that may change their strategies and their network of interaction. For such games, and based on interpreting strategies as configurations, strategy-to-payoff maps can be defined for…
We study the voting game where agents' preferences are endogenously decided by the information they receive, and they can collaborate in a group. We show that strategic voting behaviors have a positive impact on leading to the ``correct''…
The article describes a model of chess based on information theory. A mathematical model of the partial depth scheme is outlined and a formula for the partial depth added for each ply is calculated from the principles of the model. An…
Given data over the joint distribution of two random variables $X$ and $Y$, we consider the problem of inferring the most likely causal direction between $X$ and $Y$. In particular, we consider the general case where both $X$ and $Y$ may be…
We study optimal investment problem for a diffusion market consisting of a finite number of risky assets (for example, bonds, stocks and options). Risky assets evolution is described by Ito's equation, and the number of risky assets can be…
We introduce an evolutionary game with feedback between perception and reality, which we call the reality game. It is a game of chance in which the probabilities for different objective outcomes (e.g., heads or tails in a coin toss) depend…
A long-running difficulty with conventional game theory has been how to modify it to accommodate the bounded rationality of all real-world players. A recurring issue in statistical physics is how best to approximate joint probability…
In terms of transfer entropy, we investigated the strength and the direction of information transfer in the US stock market. Through the directionality of the information transfer, the more influential company between the correlated ones…
In a randomly oriented graph containing vertices $x$ and $y$, denote by $\{x\to y\}$ the event that there is a directed path from $x$ to $y$. We study the correlation between the events $\{x\to y\}$ and $\{y\to z\}$ for a (large) oriented…
An important question in the field of AI is the extent to which successful behaviour requires an internal representation of the world. In this work, we quantify the amount of information an optimal policy provides about the underlying…
Causal discovery is crucial for understanding complex systems and informing decisions. While observational data can uncover causal relationships under certain assumptions, it often falls short, making active interventions necessary. Current…
Kelly's criterion is a betting strategy that maximizes the long term growth rate, but which is known to be risky. Here, we find optimal betting strategies that gives the highest capital growth rate while keeping a certain low value of risky…
Two-player zero-sum repeated games are well understood. Computing the value of such a game is straightforward. Additionally, if the payoffs are dependent on a random state of the game known to one, both, or neither of the players, the…
A seller sells an object over time but is uncertain how the buyer learns their willingness-to-pay. We consider informational robustness under \textit{limited commitment}, where the seller offers a price \textit{each period} to maximize…
We consider a game-theoretic setting to model the interplay between attacker and defender in the context of information flow, and to reason about their optimal strategies. In contrast with standard game theory, in our games the utility of a…
In this paper we extend the theory of option pricing to take into account and explain the empirical evidence for asset prices such as non-Gaussian returns, long-range dependence, volatility clustering, non-Gaussian copula dependence, as…
We investigate the effect of information asymmetry on a dynamic Cournot duopoly game with bounded rationality. Concretely, we study how one player's possession of information about the other player's behavior in a duopoly affects the…
Causal investigations in observational studies pose a great challenge in research where randomized trials or intervention-based studies are not feasible. We develop an information geometric causal discovery and inference framework of…