Related papers: On Directed Information and Gambling
In this work, we investigate a steering problem in a mediator-augmented two-player normal-form game, where the mediator aims to guide players toward a specific action profile through information and incentive design. We first characterize…
Matrix games constitute a fundamental problem of game theory and describe a situation of two players with completely conflicting interests. We show how methods from statistical mechanics can be used to investigate the statistical properties…
We provide a comprehensive review of causal dependence through a max-linear structural equation model. Such models express each node variable as a max-linear function of its parental node variables in a directed acyclic graph and some…
The relationship between statistical dependency and causality lies at the heart of all statistical approaches to causal inference. Recent results in the ChaLearn cause-effect pair challenge have shown that causal directionality can be…
We explore the applicability of the causal analysis based on temporally shifted (lagged) Pearson correlation applied to diverse time series of different natures in context of the problem of financial market prediction. Theoretical…
Intransitive player dominance, where player A beats B, B beats C, but C beats A, is common in competitive tennis. Yet, there are few known attempts to incorporate it within forecasting methods. We address this problem with a graph neural…
In this work, we introduce novel information-theoretic generalization bounds using the conditional $f$-information framework, an extension of the traditional conditional mutual information (MI) framework. We provide a generic approach to…
Transient phenomena play a key role in coordinating brain activity at multiple scales, however,their underlying mechanisms remain largely unknown. A key challenge for neural data science is thus to characterize the network interactions at…
Using Betfair's time series data, an analysis of the United Kingdom (UK) horse racing market reveals an interesting paradox: a market with short tails, rapidly decaying autocorrelations, and no long-term memory. There seems to be a…
We introduce a general framework for continuous-time betting markets, in which a bookmaker can dynamically control the prices of bets on outcomes of random events. In turn, the prices set by the bookmaker affect the rate or intensity of…
This study investigates the application of causal discovery algorithms in equity markets, with a focus on their potential to build investment strategies. An investment strategy was developed based on the causal structures identified by…
A general theory of stochastic extensive forms is developed to bridge two concepts of information flow: decision trees and refined partitions on the one side, filtrations from probability theory on the other. Instead of the traditional…
We study an online learning problem in general-sum Stackelberg games, where players act in a decentralized and strategic manner. We study two settings depending on the type of information for the follower: (1) the limited information…
We explore the state of information disruption caused by the cocktail party effect within the framework of non-perfect information games and evolutive games with multiple werewolves. In particular, we mathematically model and analyze the…
I consider the monopolistic pricing of informational good. A buyer's willingness to pay for information is from inferring the unknown payoffs of actions in decision making. A monopolistic seller and the buyer each observes a private signal…
In the field of road safety epidemiology, it is common to use responsibility analyses to assess the effect of a given factor on the risk of being responsible for an accident, among drivers involved in an accident only. Using the SCM…
We consider optimal stopping problems, in which a sequence of independent random variables is drawn from a known continuous density. The objective of such problems is to find a procedure which maximizes the expected reward; this is often…
We focus on the influence of external sources of information upon financial markets. In particular, we develop a stochastic agent-based market model characterized by a certain herding behavior as well as allowing traders to be influenced by…
Information theory gives rise to a novel method for causal skeleton discovery by expressing associations between variables as tensors. This tensor-based approach reduces the dimensionality of the data needed to test for conditional…
This paper explores the significant history of professional football and the betting industry, tracing its evolution from clandestine beginnings to a lucrative multi-million-pound enterprise. Initiated by the legalization of gambling in…