Related papers: The stability of conditional Markov processes and …
Bailey showed that the general pointwise forecasting for stationary and ergodic time series has a negative solution. However, it is known that for Markov chains the problem can be solved. Morvai showed that there is a stopping time sequence…
We investigate the robustness of nonlinear filtering for continuous time finite state Markov chains, observed in white noise, with respect to misspecification of the model parameters. It is shown that the distance between the optimal filter…
Let $\{X_n\}$ be a stationary and ergodic time series taking values from a finite or countably infinite set ${\cal X}$. Assume that the distribution of the process is otherwise unknown. We propose a sequence of stopping times $\lambda_n$…
We consider the problem of finding the transition rates of a continuous-time homogeneous Markov chain under the empirical condition that the state changes at most once during a time interval of unit length. It is proven that this…
A hidden Markov model is called observable if distinct initial laws give rise to distinct laws of the observation process. Observability implies stability of the nonlinear filter when the signal process is tight, but this need not be the…
We investigate multivariate regular variation in the context of time-homogeneous Markov chains on general vector spaces and in random coefficient linear models. In the first part, we show that the regular variation of the stationary…
Using elementary methods, we prove that for a countable Markov chain $P$ of ergodic degree $d > 0$ the rate of convergence towards the stationary distribution is subgeometric of order $n^{-d}$, provided the initial distribution satisfies…
Given access to a single long trajectory generated by an unknown irreducible Markov chain $M$, we simulate an $\alpha$-lazy version of $M$ which is ergodic. This enables us to generalize recent results on estimation and identity testing…
This paper is concerned with the problem of nonlinear filter stability of ergodic Markov processes. The main contribution is the conditional Poincar\'e inequality (PI), which is shown to yield filter stability. The proof is based upon a…
Mostof the existing literature on supervised machine learning problems focuses on the case when the training data set is drawn from an i.i.d. sample. However, many practical problems are characterized by temporal dependence and strong…
It is known that the Dobrushin's ergodicity coefficient is one of the effective tools to study a behavior of non-homogeneous Markov chains. In the present paper, we define such an ergodicity coefficient of a positive mapping defined on…
A discrete-time Markov chain can be transformed into a new Markov chain by looking at its states along iterations of an almost surely finite stopping time. By the optional stopping theorem, any bounded harmonic function with respect to the…
In this work, we consider an inhomogeneous (discrete time) Markov chain and are interested in its long time behavior. We provide sufficient conditions to ensure that some of its asymptotic properties can be related to the ones of a…
We study the problem of stationarity and ergodicity for autoregressive multinomial logistic time series models which possibly include a latent process and are defined by a GARCH-type recursive equation. We improve considerably upon the…
This papers shows that nonlinear filter in the case of deterministic dynamics is stable with respect to the initial conditions under the conditions that observations are sufficiently rich, both in the context of continuous and discrete time…
We study a system of $N$ interacting particles on $\bf{Z}$. The stochastic dynamics consists of two components: a free motion of each particle (independent random walks) and a pair-wise interaction between particles. The interaction belongs…
This paper contains two parts. In the first part, we study the ergodicity of periodic measures of random dynamical systems on a separable Banach space. We obtain that the periodic measure of the continuous time skew-product dynamical system…
It is known that state-dependent, multi-step Lyapunov bounds lead to greatly simplified verification theorems for stability for large classes of Markov chain models. This is one component of the "fluid model" approach to stability of…
This article aims to investigate sufficient conditions for the stability of stochastic differential equations with a random structure, particularly in contexts involving the presence of concentration points. The proof of asymptotic…
We consider a stationary regularly varying time series which can be expressedas a function of a geometrically ergodic Markov chain. We obtain practical conditionsfor the weak convergence of the tail array sums and feasible estimators…