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Shot-Noise processes constitute a useful tool in various areas, in particular in finance. They allow to model abrupt changes in a more flexible way than processes with jumps and hence are an ideal tool for modelling stock prices, credit…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-01-01 Thorsten Schmidt

Stochastic processes offer a flexible mathematical formalism to model and reason about systems. Most analysis tools, however, start from the premises that models are fully specified, so that any parameters controlling the system's dynamics…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-01-11 Luca Bortolussi , Guido Sanguinetti

This paper shows how the theory of dynamic risk measures provides viscosity solutions to a family of second-order parabolic partial differential equations, even in the degenerate case. First, motivated by the martingale problem approach of…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-07-10 Jocelyne Bion-Nadal

Scientific inference involves obtaining the unknown properties or behavior of a system in the light of what is known, typically, without changing the system. Here we propose an alternative to this approach: a system can be modified in a…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-03-11 Nathaniel Rupprecht , Dervis Vural

Strassen's theorem asserts that for given marginal probabilities $\mu,\nu$ there exists a martingale starting in $\mu$ and terminating in $\nu$ if and only if $\mu,\nu$ are in convex order. From a financial perspective, it guarantees the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-09-17 Beatrice Acciaio , Mathias Beiglböck , Evgeny Kolosov , Gudmund Pammer

We study the dynamics of a particle in a space that is non-differentiable. Non-smooth geometrical objects have an inherently probabilistic nature and, consequently, introduce stochasticity in the motion of a body that lives in their realm.…

Classical Physics · Physics 2021-03-31 Álvaro G. López

Non-equilibrium phenomena occur not only in physical world, but also in finance. In this work, stochastic relaxational dynamics (together with path integrals) is applied to option pricing theory. A recently proposed model (by Ilinski et…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 Matthias Otto

We consider a continuous-time financial market that consists of securities available for dynamic trading, and securities only available for static trading. We work in a robust framework where a set of non-dominated models is given. The…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-09-22 Beatrice Acciaio , Martin Larsson

Stochastic chains represent a wide and key variety of phenomena in many branches of science within the context of Information Theory and Thermodynamics. They are typically approached by a sequence of independent events or by a memoryless…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-03-06 J. Ricardo Arias-Gonzalez

The ability to know in advance the trend of running process instances, with respect to different features, such as the expected completion time, would allow business managers to timely counteract to undesired situations, in order to prevent…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-02-25 Mirko Polato , Alessandro Sperduti , Andrea Burattin , Massimiliano de Leoni

Peters (2011a) defined an optimal leverage which maximizes the time-average growth rate of an investment held at constant leverage. It was hypothesized that this optimal leverage is attracted to 1, such that, e.g., leveraging an investment…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-06-12 Ole Peters , Alexander Adamou

Recently, progress has been made in the theory of turbulence, which provides a framework on how a deterministic process changes to a stochastic one owing to the change in thermodynamic states. It is well known that, in the framework of…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2025-10-27 Liteng Yang , Yuliang Liu , Jing Liu , Hongxuan Li , Wei Chen

For many financial applications, it is important to have reliable and tractable models for the behavior of assets and indexes, for example in risk evaluation. A successful approach is based on ARCH processes, which strike the right balance…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-07-15 Gilles Zumbach

Strict local martingales may admit arbitrage opportunities with respect to the class of simple trading strategies. (Since there is no possibility of using doubling strategies in this framework, the losses are not assumed to be bounded from…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2009-01-10 Erhan Bayraktar , Hasanjan Sayit

We consider statistical estimation of superhedging prices using historical stock returns in a frictionless market with d traded assets. We introduce a plugin estimator based on empirical measures and show it is consistent but lacks suitable…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-04-08 Jan Obloj , Johannes Wiesel

We offer a natural and extensible measure-theoretic treatment of missingness at random. Within the standard missing data framework, we give a novel characterisation of the observed data as a stopping-set sigma algebra. We demonstrate that…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-23 Daniel Farewell , Rhian Daniel , Shaun Seaman

This paper develops a comprehensive theoretical framework that imports concepts from stochastic thermodynamics to model price impact and characterize the feasibility of round-trip arbitrage in financial markets. A trading cycle is treated…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-12-04 Amit Kumar Jha

This paper is devoted to a study of robust fundamental theorems of asset pricing in discrete time and finite horizon settings. Uncertainty is modelled by a (possibly uncountable) family of price processes on the same probability space. Our…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-04-04 Huy N. Chau

In this paper, we extend the results of Elliott and Yang \cite{elliott3} and discuss the control of a stochastic process for which the driving noise is provided by a martingale associated with a semi-Markov Chain. An existence and a…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-12-23 Robert J. Elliott , Zhe Yang

In this talk I will introduce the principle of stochastic stability and discussing its consequences both at equilibrium and off-equilibrium.

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 Giorgio Parisi