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Gaussian processes allow for flexible specification of prior assumptions of unknown dynamics in state space models. We present a procedure for efficient Bayesian learning in Gaussian process state space models, where the representation is…

Prediction models are often employed in estimating parameters of optimization models. Despite the fact that in an end-to-end view, the real goal is to achieve good optimization performance, the prediction performance is measured on its own.…

Some scenarios require the computation of a predictive distribution of a new value evaluated on an objective function conditioned on previous observations. We are interested on using a model that makes valid assumptions on the objective…

This work is concerned with the convergence of Gaussian process regression. A particular focus is on hierarchical Gaussian process regression, where hyper-parameters appearing in the mean and covariance structure of the Gaussian process…

In this paper, we derive rates of convergence in the high-dimensional central limit theorem for Polyak-Ruppert averaged iterates generated by the asynchronous Q-learning algorithm with a polynomial stepsize $k^{-\omega},\, \omega \in (1/2,…

We propose a differentiable nonlinear least squares framework to account for uncertainty in relative pose estimation from feature correspondences. Specifically, we introduce a symmetric version of the probabilistic normal epipolar…

This work leverages recent advances in probabilistic machine learning to discover conservation laws expressed by parametric linear equations. Such equations involve, but are not limited to, ordinary and partial differential,…

Memory-based meta-learning is a technique for approximating Bayes-optimal predictors. Under fairly general conditions, minimizing sequential prediction error, measured by the log loss, leads to implicit meta-learning. The goal of this work…

Gaussian processes (GPs), or distributions over arbitrary functions in a continuous domain, can be generalized to the multi-output case: a linear model of coregionalization (LMC) is one approach. LMCs estimate and exploit correlations…

We consider a multivariate functional measurement error model $AX\approx B$. The errors in $[A,B]$ are uncorrelated, row-wise independent, and have equal (unknown) variances. We study the total least squares estimator of $X$, which, in the…

Stationary ergodic processes with finite alphabets are estimated by finite memory processes from a sample, an n-length realization of the process, where the memory depth of the estimator process is also estimated from the sample using…

Learning rates for least-squares regression are typically expressed in terms of $L_2$-norms. In this paper we extend these rates to norms stronger than the $L_2$-norm without requiring the regression function to be contained in the…

Least squares linear regression is one of the oldest and widely used data analysis tools. Although the theoretical analysis of the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator is as old, several fundamental questions are yet to be answered.…

Let $\{X_n\}_{n=0}^{\infty}$ be a stationary real-valued time series with unknown distribution. Our goal is to estimate the conditional expectation of $X_{n+1}$ based on the observations $X_i$, $0\le i\le n$ in a strongly consistent way.…

This paper develops a new exponential forgetting algorithm that can prevent so-called the estimator windup problem, while retaining fast convergence speed. To investigate the properties of the proposed forgetting algorithm, boundedness of…

We study nonparametric Bayesian inference for the intensity function of a covariate-driven point process. We extend recent results from the literature, showing that a wide class of Gaussian priors, combined with flexible link functions,…

For long-memory time series, inference based on resampling is of crucial importance, since the asymptotic distribution can often be non-Gaussian and is difficult to determine statistically. However due to the strong dependence, establishing…

We introduce Latent Gaussian Process Regression which is a latent variable extension allowing modelling of non-stationary multi-modal processes using GPs. The approach is built on extending the input space of a regression problem with a…

In this paper, we develop {finite-time horizon} causal filters using the nonanticipative rate distortion theory. We apply the {developed} theory to {design optimal filters for} time-varying multidimensional Gauss-Markov processes, subject…

Machine learning models based on temporal point processes are the state of the art in a wide variety of applications involving discrete events in continuous time. However, these models lack the ability to answer counterfactual questions,…