Related papers: Prediction of long memory processes on same-realis…

Let $X$ be a centered random vector taking values in $\mathbb{R}^d$ and let $\Sigma= \mathbb{E}(X\otimes X)$ be its covariance matrix. We show that if $X$ satisfies an $L_4-L_2$ norm equivalence, there is a covariance estimator…

The multivariate errors-in-variables regression model is applicable when both dependent and independent variables in a multivariate regression are subject to measurement errors. In such a scenario it is long established that the traditional…

For a multivariate stationary process, we develop explicit representations for the finite predictor coefficient matrices, the finite prediction error covariance matrices and the partial autocorrelation function (PACF) in terms of the…

Bayesian inference allows machine learning models to express uncertainty. Current machine learning models use only a single learnable parameter combination when making predictions, and as a result are highly overconfident when their…

We study Bayesian inference methods for solving linear inverse problems, focusing on hierarchical formulations where the prior or the likelihood function depend on unspecified hyperparameters. In practice, these hyperparameters are often…

In this paper, we investigate a deep learning method for predicting path-dependent processes based on discretely observed historical information. This method is implemented by considering the prediction as a nonparametric regression and…

In this paper, we focus on developing randomized algorithms for the computation of low multilinear rank approximations of tensors based on the random projection and the singular value decomposition. Following the theory of the singular…

We consider estimation of covariance matrices and their inverses (a.k.a. precision matrices) for high-dimensional stationary and locally stationary time series. In the latter case the covariance matrices evolve smoothly in time, thus…

For the multivariate COGARCH process, we obtain explicit expressions for the second-order structure of the "squared returns" process observed on an equidistant grid. Based on this, we present a generalized method of moments estimator for…

For a stationary stochastic process $\{X_n\}$ with values in some set $A$, a finite word $w \in A^K$ is called a memory word if the conditional probability of $X_0$ given the past is constant on the cylinder set defined by $X_{-K}^{-1}=w$.…

Sequential learning with Gaussian processes (GPs) is challenging when access to past data is limited, for example, in continual and active learning. In such cases, errors can accumulate over time due to inaccuracies in the posterior,…

In Generalised Bayesian Inference (GBI), the learning rate and hyperparameters of the loss must be estimated. These inference-hyperparameters can't be estimated jointly with the other parameters, from the data, by giving them a prior.…

We consider the problem of predicting values of a random process or field satisfying a linear model $y(x)=\theta^\top f(x) + \varepsilon(x)$, where errors $\varepsilon(x)$ are correlated. This is a common problem in kriging, where the case…

Bayesian methods in machine learning, such as Gaussian processes, have great advantages com-pared to other techniques. In particular, they provide estimates of the uncertainty associated with a prediction. Extending the Bayesian approach to…

Linear processes are defined as a discrete-time convolution between a kernel and an infinite sequence of i.i.d. random variables. We modify this convolution by introducing decimation, that is, by stretching time accordingly. We then…

Gaussian Process Regression is a well-known machine learning technique for which several quantum algorithms have been proposed. We show here that in a wide range of scenarios these algorithms show no exponential speedup. We achieve this by…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are powerful and widely used probabilistic regression models, but their effectiveness in practice is often limited by the choice of kernel function. This kernel function is typically handcrafted from a small set of…

Using historical data to predict future events has many applications in the real world, such as stock price prediction; the robot localization. In the past decades, the Convolutional long short-term memory (LSTM) networks have achieved…

We consider the kernel partial least squares algorithm for non-parametric regression with stationary dependent data. Probabilistic convergence rates of the kernel partial least squares estimator to the true regression function are…

We consider a Gaussian process formulation of the multiple kernel learning problem. The goal is to select the convex combination of kernel matrices that best explains the data and by doing so improve the generalisation on unseen data.…