Related papers: A delay differential model of ENSO variability: Pa…
The quantification of the interannual component of variability in climatological time series is essential for the assessment and prediction of the El Ni\~{n}o - Southern Oscillation phenomenon. This is achieved by estimating the deviation…
The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most prominent interannual climate phenomena. An early and reliable ENSO forecasting remains a crucial goal, due to its serious implications for economy, society, and ecosystem. Despite…
Delayed processes are ubiquitous in biological systems and are often characterized by delay differential equations (DDEs) and their extension to include stochastic effects. DDEs do not explicitly incorporate intermediate states associated…
We present a study of a delay differential equation (DDE) model for the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT). We investigate the behavior of the model when subjected to periodic forcing. The unforced model has a bistable region consisting of a…
We introduce an interpretable-by-design method, optimized model-analog, that integrates deep learning with model-analog forecasting which generates forecasts from similar initial climate states in a repository of model simulations. This…
Active agents with time-delayed interactions arise naturally in various real-world systems, such as biological systems, transportation networks and robotic swarms. Such systems are typically modeled as Delay Differential Equations (DDEs)…
Delay differential equations (DDEs) are widely used in mathematical modeling to describe physical and biological systems. Delays can impact model dynamics, resulting in oscillatory behavior. In physiological systems, this instability may…
Forecasting the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been a subject of vigorous research due to the important role of the phenomenon in climate dynamics and its worldwide socioeconomic impacts. Over the past decades, numerous models for…
Understanding current global climate requires an understanding of trends both in Earth's atmospheric temperature and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a characteristic large-scale distribution of warm water in the tropical Pacific…
Severe thunderstorms cause substantial economic and human losses in the United States. Simultaneous high values of convective available potential energy (CAPE) and storm relative helicity (SRH) are favorable to severe weather, and both they…
Discontinuities and delayed terms are encountered in the governing equations of a large class of problems ranging from physics and engineering to medicine and economics. These systems cannot be properly modelled and simulated with standard…
We propose a novel framework for Network Stochastic Differential Equations (N-SDE), where each node in a network is governed by an SDE influenced by interactions with its neighbors. The evolution of each node is driven by the interplay of…
Recent debates over the changing correlation between Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have raised inconclusive claims about the stability of the ENSO-Monsoon relationship (EMR) and ISMR…
The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest driver of interannual global climate variability and can lead to extreme weather events like droughts and flooding. Additionally, ENSO influences the mean global temperature with…
The effects of El Ni\~no's two distinct flavors, East Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP)/Modoki El Ni\~no, on global climate variability have been studied intensively in recent years. Most of these studies have made use of linear…
Mathematical modeling based on time-delay differential equations is an important tool to study the role of delay in biological systems and to evaluate its impact on the asymptotic behavior of their dynamics. Delays are indeed found in many…
The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important driver of climate variability and can trigger extreme weather events and disasters in various parts of the globe. Recently we have developed a network approach, which allows…
An information-theoretic framework is developed to assess the predictability of ENSO complexity, which is a central problem in contemporary meteorology with large societal impacts. The information theory advances a unique way to quantify…
We consider the numerical approximation of stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) based models for a quasi-periodic climate pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean known as El Ni\~no phenomenon. We show that for these models the…
Different to classical theories which emphasize east--west feedback along the equator, data analyses via the extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition (ESMD) method support a new viewpoint that the El Ni\~{n}o--Southern Oscillation (ENSO)…