Related papers: A delay differential model of ENSO variability: Pa…
Global weather patterns and regimes are heavily influenced by the dominant modes of Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability, including the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability (TPDV), North…
The El Ni{~n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exerts profound influence on global climate variability, yet its prediction remains a grand challenge. Recent advances in deep learning have significantly improved forecasting skill, but the…
El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a prominent mode of interannual climate variability with far-reaching global impacts. Its evolution is governed by intricate air-sea interactions, posing significant challenges for long-term…
Accurate long-range forecasting of the El \Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is vital for global climate prediction and disaster risk management. Yet, limited understanding of ENSO's physical mechanisms constrains both numerical and deep…
The recharge oscillator (RO) model has been successfully used to understand different aspects of the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Fitting the RO to observations and climate model simulations consistently suggests that ENSO is a…
The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant driver of interannual global climate variability and can lead to extreme weather events such as droughts or flooding. Recently, we have developed several statistical approaches for…
We present a new approach to forecasting North Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) by recognizing that interannual variability primarily reflects amplitude changes in four dominant seasonal cycles. Our multivariate linear model…
The El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) behavior can be effectively modeled as a response to a 2nd-order Mathieu/Hill differential equation with periodic coefficients describing sloshing of a volume of water. The forcing of the equation…
The Ghil-Zaliapin-Thompson (GZT) model, a scalar delay differential equation with periodic forcing and time-delayed feedback, captures key features of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Numerical studies of the GZT model…
In this study we used the sea surface temperature (SST), El-Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) time-series for the time period 1900-2012 in order to investigate plausible manifestation of sharp increases…
We analyse the transitions between established phases of the El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by surveying the daily data of the Southern Oscillation Index from an entropic viewpoint using the framework of stochastic Statistical…
The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the Earth's strongest climate fluctuation on inter-annual time-scales and has global impacts although originating in the tropical Pacific. Many point indices have been developed to describe ENSO…
El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits significant impacts on the frequency of extreme weather events and its socio-economic implications prevail on a global scale. However, a fundamental gap still exists in understanding the…
Arnold's standard circle maps are widely used to study the quasi-periodic route to chaos and other phenomena associated with nonlinear dynamics in the presence of two rationally unrelated periodicities. In particular, the El Nino-Southern…
Understanding ENSO dynamics has tremendously improved over the past decades. However, one aspect still poorly understood or represented in conceptual models is the ENSO diversity in spatial pattern, peak intensity, and temporal evolution.…
The coupled atmosphere-ocean variability of the Indo-Pacific on interannual to multidecadal timescales is investigated in a millennial control run of CCSM4 and in observations using a family of modes recovered in Part~I of this work from…
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant mode of atmospheric variability over the North Atlantic sector, influencing temperature and precipitation across Europe. While the NAO's impact on North Atlantic sea surface temperatures…
Tropical cyclones (TCs), including hurricanes and typhoons, cause significant property damage and result in fatalities, making it crucial to understand the factors driving extreme TCs. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences TC…
We study the stability of general $n$-dimensional nonautonomous linear differential equations with infinite delays. Delay independent criteria, as well as criteria depending on the size of some finite delays are established. In the first…
Delay differential equations (DDEs) with large delays play a pivotal role in understanding stability and bifurcations in systems ranging from neural networks to laser dynamics. While prior work has extensively studied DDEs with discrete…