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The behavior of complex systems is determined not only by the topological organization of their interconnections but also by the dynamical processes taking place among their constituents. A faithful modeling of the dynamics is essential…

We consider a general tractable model for default contagion and systemic risk in a heterogeneous financial network, subject to an exogenous macroeconomic shock. We show that, under some regularity assumptions, the default cascade model…

Natural systems are remarkably robust and resilient, maintaining essential functions despite variability, uncertainty, and hostile conditions. Understanding these nonlinear, dynamic behaviours is challenging because such systems involve…

Predicting the occurrence of links is a fundamental problem in networks. In the link prediction problem we are given a snapshot of a network and would like to infer which interactions among existing members are likely to occur in the near…

We present a network-based framework for simulating systemic risk that considers shock propagation in banking systems. In particular, the framework allows the modeller to reflect a top-down framework where a shock to one bank in the system…

Dynamic systems characterized by diversified evolutions are not only more flexible, but also more resilient to attacks, failures and changing conditions. This article addresses the quantification of the diversity of non-linear transient…

The importance of adequately modeling credit risk has once again been highlighted in the recent financial crisis. Defaults tend to cluster around times of economic stress due to poor macro-economic conditions, {\em but also} by directly…

We consider the problem of risk diversification in complex networks. Nodes represent e.g. financial actors, whereas weighted links represent e.g. financial obligations (credits/debts). Each node has a risk to fail because of losses…

The structure of many financial networks is protected by privacy and has to be inferred from aggregate observables. Here we consider one of the most successful network reconstruction methods, producing random graphs with desired link…

Models of threshold driven contagion explain the cascading spread of information, behavior, systemic risk, and epidemics on social, financial and biological networks. At odds with empirical observation, these models predict that…

The co-evolution between network structure and functional performance is a fundamental and challenging problem whose complexity emerges from the intrinsic interdependent nature of structure and function. Within this context, we investigate…

We study the mutual percolation of a system composed of two interdependent random regular networks. We introduce a notion of distance to explore the effects of the proximity of interdependent nodes on the cascade of failures after an…

We investigate the statistics of fluctuations in a classical stochastic network of nodes joined by connectors. The nodes carry generalized charge that may be randomly transferred from one node to another. Our goal is to find the time…

We consider a dynamical model of distress propagation on complex networks, which we apply to the study of financial contagion in networks of banks connected to each other by direct exposures. The model that we consider is an extension of…

The goal of this paper is to study organized flocking behavior and systemic risk in heterogeneous mean-field interacting diffusions. We illustrate in a number of case studies the effect of heterogeneity in the behavior of systemic risk in…

Here we present the entropic dynamics formalism for networks. That is, a framework for the dynamics of graphs meant to represent a network derived from the principle of maximum entropy and the rate of transition is obtained taking into…

Just as a herd of animals relies on its robust social structure to survive in the wild, similarly robustness is a crucial characteristic for the survival of a complex network under attack. The capacity to measure robustness in complex…

The threshold model has been widely adopted as a prototype for studying contagion processes on social networks. In this paper, we consider individual interactions in groups of three or more vertices and study the threshold model on…

Deep neural networks give us a powerful method to model the training dataset's relationship between input and output. We can regard that as a complex adaptive system consisting of many artificial neurons that work as an adaptive memory as a…

Economic interdependencies have become increasingly present in globalized production, financial and trade systems. While establishing interdependencies among economic agents is crucial for the production of complex products, they may also…