Related papers: Kullback Leibler property of kernel mixture priors…
Density estimation represents one of the most successful applications of Bayesian nonparametrics. In particular, Dirichlet process mixtures of normals are the gold standard for density estimation and their asymptotic properties have been…
We consider predictive density estimation under logarithmic score for $d$-dimensional infinitely divisible location models. Taking the formal Bayes predictive density under the Lebesgue prior as a benchmark, we study the Kullback-Leibler…
Simultaneous predictive densities for independent Poisson observables are investigated. The observed data and the target variables to be predicted are independently distributed according to different Poisson distributions parametrized by…
We study frequentist risk properties of predictive density estimators for mean mixtures of multivariate normal distributions, involving an unknown location parameter $\theta \in \mathbb{R}^d$, and which include multivariate skew normal…
We study the Kullback--Leibler (KL) divergence approximation theory of Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) by isolating an abstract mechanism behind several necessary-and-sufficient statements. The necessity direction is universal: if a density…
There is a rich literature on Bayesian methods for density estimation, which characterize the unknown density as a mixture of kernels. Such methods have advantages in terms of providing uncertainty quantification in estimation, while being…
Bayesian analysis of data from the general linear mixed model is challenging because any nontrivial prior leads to an intractable posterior density. However, if a conditionally conjugate prior density is adopted, then there is a simple…
Construction methods for prior densities are investigated from a predictive viewpoint. Predictive densities for future observables are constructed by using observed data. The simultaneous distribution of future observables and observed data…
This paper shows that large nonparametric classes of conditional multivariate densities can be approximated in the Kullback--Leibler distance by different specifications of finite mixtures of normal regressions in which normal means and…
Bayesian predictive densities when the observed data $x$ and the target variable $y$ to be predicted have different distributions are investigated by using the framework of information geometry. The performance of predictive densities is…
Kernel methods are one of the mainstays of machine learning, but the problem of kernel learning remains challenging, with only a few heuristics and very little theory. This is of particular importance in methods based on estimation of…
We study density estimation in Kullback-Leibler divergence: given an i.i.d. sample from an unknown density $p^\star$, the goal is to construct an estimator $\widehat{p}$ such that $\mathrm{KL}(p^\star,\widehat{p})$ is small with high…
Bayesian analysis has become an indispensable tool across many different cosmological fields including the study of gravitational waves, the Cosmic Microwave Background and the 21-cm signal from the Cosmic Dawn among other phenomena. The…
In this work, a novel sequential Monte Carlo filter is introduced which aims at efficient sampling of high-dimensional state spaces with a limited number of particles. Particles are pushed forward from the prior to the posterior density…
The problem of predicting independent Poisson random variables is commonly encountered in real-life practice. Simultaneous predictive distributions for independent Poisson observables are investigated, and the performance of predictive…
Bayesian model comparison requires the specification of a prior distribution on the parameter space of each candidate model. In this connection two concerns arise: on the one hand the elicitation task rapidly becomes prohibitive as the…
We study empirical Bayes (EB) predictive density estimation in linear mixed models (LMMs) with large number of units, which induce a high dimensional random effects space. Focusing on Kullback Leibler (KL) risk minimization, we develop a…
Classic Bayesian methods with complex models are frequently infeasible due to an intractable likelihood. Simulation-based inference methods, such as Approximate Bayesian Computing (ABC), calculate posteriors without accessing a likelihood…
We propose a new model selection method, the posterior averaging information criterion, for Bayesian model assessment from a predictive perspective. The theoretical foundation is built on the Kullback-Leibler divergence to quantify the…
In Bayesian multilevel models, the data are structured in interconnected groups, and their posteriors borrow information from one another due to prior dependence between latent parameters. However, little is known about the behaviour of the…