Related papers: Seismic precursory patterns before a cliff collaps…
We develop a discrete-event modeling framework that captures the progression of geophysical systems toward catastrophic failure through sequences of distinct damage events. By representing system evolution as a succession of temporally…
Using error diagrams, we quantify the forecasting of characteristic-earthquake occurrence in a recently introduced minimalist model. Initially we connect the earthquake alarm at a fixed time after the ocurrence of a characteristic event.…
Extreme events can come either from point processes, when the size or energy of the events is above a certain threshold, or from time series, when the intensity of a signal surpasses a threshold value. We are particularly concerned by the…
Wave impact and run-up onto vertical obstacles are among the most important phenomena which must be taken into account in the design of coastal structures. From linear wave theory, we know that the wave amplitude on a vertical wall is twice…
Critical phenomena near continuous phase transitions are typically observed on the scale of wavelengths of visible light[1]. Here we report similar phenomena for atmospheric precipitation on scales of tens of kilometers. Our observations…
Stress enhancement in the vicinity of brittle cracks makes the macro-scale failure properties extremely sensitive to the micro-scale material disorder. Therefore: (i) Fracturing systems often display a jerky dynamics, so-called crackling…
Power laws and distributions with heavy tails are common features of many experimentally studied complex systems, like the distribution of the sizes of earthquakes and solar flares, or the duration of neuronal avalanches in the brain.…
Although our existing one-dimensional (1D) model provides a successful quantitative description of rupture events, a 1D description is somewhat limited. We therefore derive a two-dimensional (2D) model which allows us to investigate…
We present simulations of the tidal disruption of a solar mass star by a $10^6M_{\odot}$ black hole. These, for the first time, cover the full time evolution of the tidal disruption event, starting well before the initial encounter and…
The onset of rapid slip along initially quiescent frictional interfaces, the process of `earthquake nucleation', and dissipative spatiotemporal slippage dynamics play important roles in a broad range of physical systems. Here we first show…
It has been recently found that a number of systems displaying crackling noise also show a remarkable behavior regarding the temporal occurrence of successive events versus their size: a scaling law for the probability distributions of…
An introductory review to short-time critical dynamics is given. From the scaling relation valid already in the early stage of the evolution of a system at or near the critical point, one derives power law behaviour for various quantities.…
Simple models of clarinet instruments based on iterated maps have been used in the past to successfully estimate the threshold of oscillation of this instrument as a function of a constant blowing pressure. However, when the blowing…
Critical slowing down of the relaxation of the order parameter is relevant both in early the universe and in ultrarelativistic heavy ion collisions. We study the relaxation rate of the order parameter in an O(N) scalar theory near the…
Forecasting violent rockbursts remains a formidable challenge due to significant uncertainties involved. One major uncertainty arises from the intermittency of rock failure processes, typically characterised by a series of progressively…
Volcanic seismicity at Mt. Etna is studied. It is found that the associated stochastic process exhibits a subdiffusive phenomenon. The jump probability distribution well obeys an exponential law, whereas the waiting-time distribution…
Atlantic Canada faces significant hurricane threats from damaging winds and coastal flooding that are projected to intensify under climate change. This study adopts a two-stage framework. First, the evolution of wind and coastal-flood…
The fate of cities under natural hazards depends not only on hazard intensity but also on the coupling of structural damage, a collective process that remains poorly understood. Here we show that urban structural damage exhibits…
Gravitational waves from a phase transition associated with the generation of the masses of elementary particles are within the reach of future space-based detectors such as LISA. A key determinant of the resulting power spectrum, not…
Of particular interest is the detection of precursors of an impending rupture. Theoretical, numerical studies along with laboratory experiments indicate that precursory signs of an impending failure are the sudden drop of fractal dimension…