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Stochastic dynamics on sparse graphs and disordered systems often lead to complex behaviors characterized by heterogeneity in time and spatial scales, slow relaxation, localization, and aging phenomena. The mathematical tools and…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2025-06-05 Mattia Tarabolo , Luca Dall'Asta

Gaussian processes are a versatile framework for learning unknown functions in a manner that permits one to utilize prior information about their properties. Although many different Gaussian process models are readily available when the…

The construction of synthetic complex-valued signals from real-valued observations is an important step in many time series analysis techniques. The most widely used approach is based on the Hilbert transform, which maps the real-valued…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-12-08 Luca Ambrogioni , Eric Maris

We investigate rough differential equations with a time-dependent reflecting lower barrier, where both the driving (rough) path and the barrier itself may have jumps. Assuming the driving signals allow for Young integration, we provide…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-09-21 Andrew L. Allan , Chong Liu , David J. Prömel

Credible forecasting and representation learning of dynamical systems are of ever-increasing importance for reliable decision-making. To that end, we propose a family of Gaussian processes (GP) for dynamical systems with linear…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Petar Bevanda , Max Beier , Armin Lederer , Alexandre Capone , Stefan Sosnowski , Sandra Hirche

Despite the growing availability of sensing and data in general, we remain unable to fully characterise many in-service engineering systems and structures from a purely data-driven approach. The vast data and resources available to capture…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-20 Elizabeth J Cross , Timothy J Rogers , Daniel J Pitchforth , Samuel J Gibson , Matthew R Jones

The existence of unique solutions is established for rough differential equations (RDEs) with path-dependent coefficients and driven by c\`adl\`ag rough paths. Moreover, it is shown that the associated solution map, also known as…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-26 Anna P. Kwossek , Andreas Neuenkirch , David J. Prömel

Deep Gaussian Processes learn probabilistic data representations for supervised learning by cascading multiple Gaussian Processes. While this model family promises flexible predictive distributions, exact inference is not tractable.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-23 Jakob Lindinger , David Reeb , Christoph Lippert , Barbara Rakitsch

We consider slow-fast systems of differential equations, in which both the slow and fast variables are perturbed by noise. When the deterministic system admits a uniformly asymptotically stable slow manifold, we show that the sample paths…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Nils Berglund , Barbara Gentz

The composition of multiple Gaussian Processes as a Deep Gaussian Process (DGP) enables a deep probabilistic nonparametric approach to flexibly tackle complex machine learning problems with sound quantification of uncertainty. Existing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-03-02 Kurt Cutajar , Edwin V. Bonilla , Pietro Michiardi , Maurizio Filippone

We consider anticipative Stratonovich stochastic differential equations driven by some stochastic process lifted to a rough path. Neither adaptedness of initial point and vector fields nor commuting conditions between vector field is…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-11-10 Laure Coutin , Peter Friz , Nicolas Victoir

We study pathwise invariances of centred random fields that can be controlled through the covariance. A result involving composition operators is obtained in second-order settings, and we show that various path properties including…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-08-07 David Ginsbourger , Olivier Roustant , Nicolas Durrande

Motivated by a problematic coming from mathematical finance, this paper is devoted to existing and additional results of continuity and differentiability of the It\^o map associated to rough differential equations. These regularity results…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-01-16 Nicolas Marie

We show how to use geometric arguments to prove that the terminal solution to a rough differential equation driven by a geometric rough path can be obtained by driving the same equation by a piecewise linear path. For this purpose, we…

Classical Analysis and ODEs · Mathematics 2022-02-01 Youness Boutaib

In this paper, we analyze Gaussian processes using statistical mechanics. Although the input is originally multidimensional, we simplify our model by considering the input as one-dimensional for statistical mechanical analysis. Furthermore,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-05-05 Jun Tsuzurugi

Motivated by the recent advances in the theory of stochastic partial differential equations involving nonlinear functions of distributions, like the Kardar-Parisi-Zhang (KPZ) equation, we reconsider the unique solvability of one-dimensional…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-03-09 François Delarue , Roland Diel

We aim to link random fields and marked point processes and therefore introduce a new class of stochastic processes which are defined on a random set in R^d. Unlike for random fields, the mark covariance function of a marked random set is…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-01-25 Felix Ballani , Zakhar Kabluchko , Martin Schlather

Consider a multidimensional diffusion process $X=\{X\left(t\right) :t\in\lbrack0,1]\}$. Let $\varepsilon>0$ be a \textit{deterministic}, user defined, tolerance error parameter. Under standard regularity conditions on the drift and…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-07-22 Jose Blanchet , Xinyun Chen , Jing Dong

Within the past two decades, Gaussian process regression has been increasingly used for modeling dynamical systems due to some beneficial properties such as the bias variance trade-off and the strong connection to Bayesian mathematics. As…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-02-11 Thomas Beckers

Non-stationary time series with non-linear trends are frequently encountered in applications. We consider here the feasibility of accurately forecasting the signals of multiple such time series considering jointly when the number of…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-08-05 Kerry Fendick