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There is a well-known sequence of constants c_n describing the growth of supercritical Galton-Watson processes Z_n. With 'lower deviation probabilities' we refer to P(Z_n=k_n) with k_n=o(c_n) as n increases. We give a detailed picture of…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Klaus Fleischmann , Vitali Wachtel

We study the asymptotic behavior of small deviation probabilities for the critical Galton-Watson processes with infinite variance of the offspring sizes of particles and apply the obtained result to investigate the structure of a reduced…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-05-16 Vladimir Vatutin , Elena Dyakonova , Yakubdjan Khusanbaev

Gaussian process regression is a popular method for non-parametric probabilistic modeling of functions. The Gaussian process prior is characterized by so-called hyperparameters, which often have a large influence on the posterior model and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-11-18 Andreas Svensson , Johan Dahlin , Thomas B. Schön

In recent years, the shortcomings of Bayesian posteriors as inferential devices have received increased attention. A popular strategy for fixing them has been to instead target a Gibbs measure based on losses that connect a parameter of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-04-24 David T. Frazier , Jeremias Knoblauch , Jack Jewson , Christopher Drovandi

This paper provides tight bounds on the R\'enyi entropy of a function of a discrete random variable with a finite number of possible values, where the considered function is not one-to-one. To that end, a tight lower bound on the R\'enyi…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2018-12-11 Igal Sason

We derive new and improved non-asymptotic deviation inequalities for the sample average approximation (SAA) of an optimization problem. Our results give strong error probability bounds that are "sub-Gaussian"~even when the randomness of the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-03-28 Roberto I. Oliveira , Philip Thompson

Gaussian processes are a powerful framework for quantifying uncertainty and for sequential decision-making but are limited by the requirement of solving linear systems. In general, this has a cubic cost in dataset size and is sensitive to…

How hard is it guess a password? Massey showed that that the Shannon entropy of the distribution from which the password is selected is a lower bound on the expected number of guesses, but one which is not tight in general. In a series of…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2013-02-12 Mark M. Christiansen , Ken R. Duffy

These lecture notes consist of three chapters. In the first chapter we present oracle inequalities for the prediction error of the Lasso and square-root Lasso and briefly describe the scaled Lasso. In the second chapter we establish…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-10-01 Sara van de Geer

This paper studies the complexity of estimating Renyi divergences of discrete distributions: $p$ observed from samples and the baseline distribution $q$ known \emph{a priori}. Extending the results of Acharya et al. (SODA'15) on estimating…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2017-02-09 Maciej Skorski

We investigate the relation between the small deviation problem for a symmetric $\alpha$-stable random vector in a Banach space and the metric entropy properties of the operator generating it. This generalizes former results due to Li and…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-01-20 Frank Aurzada , Mikhail Lifshits , Werner Linde

In this paper, we study random subsampling of Gaussian process regression, one of the simplest approximation baselines, from a theoretical perspective. Although subsampling discards a large part of training data, we show provable guarantees…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-01-29 Kohei Hayashi , Masaaki Imaizumi , Yuichi Yoshida

We study the probability distribution of entanglement in the Quantum Symmetric Simple Exclusion Process, a model of fermions hopping with random Brownian amplitudes between neighboring sites. We consider a protocol where the system is…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-07-30 Denis Bernard , Lorenzo Piroli

We introduce a new interpretation of sparse variational approximations for Gaussian processes using inducing points, which can lead to more scalable algorithms than previous methods. It is based on decomposing a Gaussian process as a sum of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-27 Jiaxin Shi , Michalis K. Titsias , Andriy Mnih

Gaussian processes (GPs) are frequently used in machine learning and statistics to construct powerful models. However, when employing GPs in practice, important considerations must be made, regarding the high computational burden,…

Computation · Statistics 2021-03-08 Karla Monterrubio-Gómez , Sara Wade

Gaussian processes are an important regression tool with excellent analytic properties which allow for direct integration of derivative observations. However, vanilla GP methods scale cubically in the amount of observations. In this work,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-06 Emmanouil Angelis , Philippe Wenk , Bernhard Schölkopf , Stefan Bauer , Andreas Krause

Large random matrices appear in different fields of mathematics and physics such as combinatorics, probability theory, statistics, operator theory, number theory, quantum field theory, string theory etc... In the last ten years, they…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Alice Guionnet

The main results in this paper concern large deviations for families of non-Gaussian processes obtained as suitable perturbations of continuous centered multivariate Gaussian processes which satisfy a large deviation principle. We present…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-07-06 C. Macci , B. Pacchiarotti

Gaussian processes are the gold standard for many real-world modeling problems, especially in cases where a model's success hinges upon its ability to faithfully represent predictive uncertainty. These problems typically exist as parts of…

The Shannon entropy, and related quantities such as mutual information, can be used to quantify uncertainty and relevance. However, in practice, it can be difficult to compute these quantities for arbitrary probability distributions,…

Computation · Statistics 2017-10-11 Brendon J. Brewer