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This paper proposes two distinct contributions to econometric analysis of large information sets and structural instabilities. First, it treats a regression model with time-varying coefficients, stochastic volatility and exogenous…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-27 Dimitris Korobilis

In stochastic variational inference, the variational Bayes objective function is optimized using stochastic gradient approximation, where gradients computed on small random subsets of data are used to approximate the true gradient over the…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-10-19 Linda S. L. Tan , David J. Nott

Belief propagation (BP) is a powerful tool to solve distributed inference problems, though it is limited by short cycles in the corresponding factor graph. Such cycles may lead to incorrect solutions or oscillatory behavior. Only for…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2018-02-08 Christopher Lindberg , Julien M. Hendrickx , Henk Wymeersch

A hierarchical Bayesian approach that permits simultaneous inference for the regression coefficient matrix and the error precision (inverse covariance) matrix in the multivariate linear model is proposed. Assuming a natural ordering of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-29 Christina Zhao , Ding Xiang , Galin L. Jones , Adam J. Rothman

Gaussian belief propagation (BP) is a computationally efficient method to approximate the marginal distribution and has been widely used for inference with high dimensional data as well as distributed estimation in large-scale networks.…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2017-11-29 Jian Du , Soummya Kar , José M. F. Moura

In this work we introduce a novel weighted message-passing algorithm based on the cavity method to estimate volume-related properties of random polytopes, properties which are relevant in various research fields ranging from metabolic…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2015-06-11 Francesc Font-Clos , Francesco Alessandro Massucci , Isaac Pérez Castillo

Though Gaussian graphical models have been widely used in many scientific fields, relatively limited progress has been made to link graph structures to external covariates. We propose a Gaussian graphical regression model, which regresses…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-01 Jingfei Zhang , Yi Li

Gaussian processes (GPs) are versatile tools that have been successfully employed to solve nonlinear estimation problems in machine learning, but that are rarely used in signal processing. In this tutorial, we present GPs for regression as…

We introduce and develop moment propagation for approximate Bayesian inference. This method can be viewed as a variance correction for mean field variational Bayes which tends to underestimate posterior variances. Focusing on the case where…

Computation · Statistics 2022-11-22 John Ormerod , Weichang Yu

We revisit the replica method for analyzing inference and learning in parametric models, considering situations where the data-generating distribution is unknown or analytically intractable. Instead of assuming idealized distributions to…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2025-11-17 Takashi Takahashi

While Gaussian probability densities are omnipresent in applied mathematics, Gaussian cumulative probabilities are hard to calculate in any but the univariate case. We study the utility of Expectation Propagation (EP) as an approximate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-12-02 John P. Cunningham , Philipp Hennig , Simon Lacoste-Julien

Expectation Propagation (Minka, 2001) is a widely successful algorithm for variational inference. EP is an iterative algorithm used to approximate complicated distributions, typically to find a Gaussian approximation of posterior…

Computation · Statistics 2016-04-01 Guillaume Dehaene , Simon Barthelmé

Bayesian inference offers a principled account of information processing in natural agents. However, it remains an open question how neural mechanisms perform their abstract operations. We investigate a hypothesis where a distributed form…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2025-12-12 Sepideh Adamiat , Wouter M. Kouw , Bert de Vries

Understanding and quantifying the dynamics of disordered out-of-equilibrium models is an important problem in many branches of science. Using the dynamic cavity method on time trajectories, we construct a general procedure for deriving the…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2015-06-22 Andrey Y. Lokhov , Marc Mézard , Lenka Zdeborová

High-dimensional regression models with regularized sparse estimation are widely applied. For statistical inferences, debiased methods are available about single coefficients or predictions with sparse new covariate vectors (also called…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-16 Libin Liang , Zhiqiang Tan

We introduce novel results for approximate inference on planar graphical models using the loop calculus framework. The loop calculus (Chertkov and Chernyak, 2006) allows to express the exact partition function of a graphical model as a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2009-05-25 V. Gómez , H. J. Kappen , M. Chertkov

We illustrate the utility of the recently developed loop calculus for improving the Belief Propagation (BP) algorithm. If the algorithm that minimizes the Bethe free energy fails we modify the free energy by accounting for a critical loop…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2007-07-13 Michael Chertkov , Vladimir Y. Chernyak

We consider a modification of the covariance function in Gaussian processes to correctly account for known linear constraints. By modelling the target function as a transformation of an underlying function, the constraints are explicitly…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-09-20 Carl Jidling , Niklas Wahlström , Adrian Wills , Thomas B. Schön

In the context of inference with expectation constraints, we propose an approach based on the "loopy belief propagation" algorithm LBP, as a surrogate to an exact Markov Random Field MRF modelling. A prior information composed of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-05-13 Cyril Furtlehner , Jean-Marc Lasgouttes , Anne Auger

Compressed sensing (CS) demonstrates that sparse signals can be recovered from underdetermined linear measurements. We focus on the joint sparse recovery problem where multiple signals share the same common sparse support sets, and they are…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2011-02-17 Jongmin Kim , Woohyuk Chang , Bangchul Jung , Dror Baron , Jong Chul Ye