Related papers: Anthropic prediction in a large toy landscape
The distribution of the cosmic convergence field is modeled using a large-deviation principle where all non-Gaussian contributions are computed from first principles. The geometry of the past light cone is accounted for by constructing the…
The suggestion that there exist causally disconnected universes or sub-universes to explain the values of physical parameters such as the cosmological constant is discussed. A statistical model of the string landscape/topography is…
In agricultural landscapes, the composition and spatial configuration of cultivated and semi-natural elements strongly impact species dynamics, their interactions and habitat connectivity. To allow for landscape structural analysis and…
The probability distribution of lens image separations is calculated for the ``standard'' gravitational lensing statistics model in an arbitrary, flat Robertson-Walker universe, where lensing galaxies are singular isothermal spheres that…
The joint probability distribution function (PDF) of the density within multiple concentric spherical cells is considered. It is shown how its cumulant generating function can be obtained at tree order in perturbation theory as the Legendre…
A theoretical analysis of the earthquake prediction problem in space-time is presented. We find an explicit structure of the optimal strategy and its relation to the generalized error diagram. This study is a generalization of the…
Using results from neurobiology on perceptual decision making and value-based decision making, the problem of decision making between lotteries is reformulated in an abstract space where uncertain prospects are mapped to corresponding…
Discrete time, spatially extended models play an important role in ecology, modelling population dynamics of species ranging from micro-organisms to birds. An important question is how 'bottom up', individual-based models can be…
Recent results from a number of redshift surveys suggest that the Universe is well described by an inhomogeneous, fractal distribution on the largest scales probed. This distribution has been found to have fractal dimension, D,…
Understanding the forces shaping ecological communities is crucially important to basic science and conservation. In recent years, considerable progress was made in explaining communities using simple and general models, with neutral theory…
The spreading of evolutionary novelties across populations is the central element of adaptation. Unless population are well-mixed (like bacteria in a shaken test tube), the spreading dynamics not only depends on fitness differences but also…
Recently, a new framework for describing the multiverse has been proposed which is based on the principles of quantum mechanics. The framework allows for well-defined predictions, both regarding global properties of the universe and…
``Constants of Nature'' and cosmological parameters may in fact be variables related to some slowly-varying fields. In models of eternal inflation, such fields will take different values in different parts of the universe. Here I show how…
In hep-th/0501082, a field theoretic ``toy model'' for the Landscape was proposed. We show that the considerations of that paper carry through to realistic effective Lagrangians, such as those that emerge out of string theory. Extracting…
We study a stochastic linear discrete metapolulation model to understand the effect of risk spreading by dispersion. We calculate analytically the stable distribution of populations that live in different habitats. The result shows that the…
The distribution of price returns for a class of uncorrelated diffusive dynamics is considered. The basic assumptions are (1) that there is a "consensus" value associated with a stock, and (2) that the rate of diffusion depends on the…
A central issue in ecology today is that of the factors determining the relative abundance of species within a natural community. The proper application of the principles of statistical physics to the problem of species abundance…
Phenotypically structured equations arise in population biology to describe the interaction of species with their environment that brings the nutrients. This interaction usually leads to selection of the fittest individuals. Models used in…
Many policies allocate harms or benefits that are uncertain in nature: they produce distributions over the population in which individuals have different probabilities of incurring harm or benefit. Comparing different policies thus involves…
With the rise of increasingly powerful and user-facing NLP systems, there is growing interest in assessing whether they have a good representation of uncertainty by evaluating the quality of their predictive distribution over outcomes. We…