Related papers: Anthropic prediction in a large toy landscape
When the interactions of agents on a network are assumed to follow the Deffuant opinion dynamics model, the outcomes are known to depend on the structure of the underlying network. This behavior cannot be captured by existing mean-field…
Objective probabilistic forecasts of future climate that include parameter uncertainty can be made by using the Bayesian prediction integral with the prior set to Jeffreys' Prior. The calculations involved in determining the prior can then…
A stochastic model relating the parameters of astrophysical structures to the parameters of their granular components is applied to the formation of hierarchical, large-scale structures from galaxies assumed as point-like objects. If the…
Variants of fluctuation theorems recently discovered in the statistical mechanics of non-equilibrium processes may be used for the efficient determination of high-dimensional integrals as typically occurring in Bayesian data analysis. In…
The large scale distribution of galaxies in the universe displays a complex pattern of clusters, super-clusters, filaments and voids with sizes limited only by the boundaries of the available samples. A quantitative statistical…
We attempt to describe the stress distributions of granular packings using lattice-based layer-by-layer stochastic models that satisfy the constraints of force and torque balance and non-tensile forces at each site. The inherent asymmetry…
Nonparametric estimation of the conditional distribution of a response given high-dimensional features is a challenging problem. It is important to allow not only the mean but also the variance and shape of the response density to change…
We propose a distributed algorithm for multiagent systems that aim to optimize a common objective when agents differ in their estimates of the objective-relevant state of the environment. Each agent keeps an estimate of the environment and…
The expansion of a population into new habitat is a transient process that leaves its footprints in the genetic composition of the expanding population. How the structure of the environment shapes the population front and the evolutionary…
A stochastic model for the evolution of a growing population is proposed, in order to explain empirical power-law distributions in the frequency of family names as a function of the family size. Preliminary results show that the predicted…
Multi-model ensembles provide a pragmatic approach to the representation of model uncertainty in climate prediction. However, such representations are inherently ad hoc, and, as shown, probability distributions of climate variables based on…
This paper sets out to resolve how agents ought to act in the Sleeping Beauty problem and various related anthropic (self-locating belief) problems, not through the calculation of anthropic probabilities, but through finding the correct…
Even in large systems, the effect of noise arising from when populations are initially small can persist to be measurable on the macroscale. A deterministic approximation to a stochastic model will fail to capture this effect, but it can be…
Rainfall is an important component of the climate system and its statistical properties are vital for prediction purposes. In this study, we have developed a statistical method for constructing the distribution of annual precipitation. The…
It is possible that there may be differences in the fundamental physical parameters from one side of the observed universe to the other. I show that the cosmological constant is likely to be the most sensitive of the physical parameters to…
The observed value $\Lambda_{\rm obs}$ of the cosmological constant $\Lambda$ is extremely smaller than theoretical expectations, and the anthropic argument has been proposed as a solution to this problem because galaxies do not form when…
Assuming a fractal distribution of matter in the universe, consequences that follow from the General Theory of Relativity and the Copernican Principle for fractal cosmology are examined. The change in perspective necessary to deal with a…
We analyze the long-term stability of a stochastic model designed to illustrate the adaptation of a population to variation in its environment. A piecewise-deterministic process modeling adaptation is coupled to a Feller logistic diffusion…
We describe a continuous-time modelling framework for biological population dynamics that accounts for demographic noise. In the spirit of the methodology used by statistical physicists, transitions between the states of the system are…
Automated warehouses execute millions of stow operations, where robots place objects into storage bins. For these systems it is valuable to anticipate how a bin will look from the current observations and the planned stow behavior before…