Related papers: A new chaotic attractor in a basic multi-strain ep…
External and internal factors may cause a system's parameter to vary with time before it stabilizes. This drift induces a regime shift when the parameter crosses a bifurcation. Here, we study the case of an infinite dimensional system: a…
We investigate a time-delayed epidemic model for multi-strain diseases with temporary immunity. In the absence of cross-immunity between strains, dynamics of each individual strain exhibits emergence and anni- hilation of limit cycles due…
Dengue continues to pose a major global threat, infecting nearly 390 million people annually. Recognizing the pivotal role of vector competence (vc), recent research focuses on mosquito parameters to inform transmission modeling and vector…
We study a deterministic dynamics with two time scales in a continuous state attractor network. To the usual (fast) relaxation dynamics towards point attractors (``patterns'') we add a slow coupling dynamics that makes the visited patterns…
Multivariate count time series models are an important tool for the analysis and prediction of infectious disease spread. We consider the endemic-epidemic framework, an autoregressive model class for infectious disease surveillance counts,…
A new method is proposed to infer unobserved epidemic sub-populations by exploiting the synchronization properties of multistrain epidemic models. A model for dengue fever is driven by simulated data from secondary infective populations.…
A diffusive epidemic model with an infection-dependent recovery rate is formulated in this paper. Multiple constant steady states and spatially homogeneous periodic solutions are first proven by bifurcation analysis of the reaction…
An epidemic model with distributed time delay is derived to describe the dynamics of infectious diseases with varying immunity. It is shown that solutions are always positive, and the model has at most two steady states: disease-free and…
In this work, we study the unpredictability of seasonal infectious diseases considering a SEIRS model with seasonal forcing. To investigate the dynamical behaviour, we compute bifurcation diagrams type hysteresis and their respective…
It is possible to model vector-borne infection using the classical Ross-Macdonald model. This attempt, however fails in several respects. First, using measured (or estimated) parameters, the model predicts a much greater number of cases…
Dengue viral infections show unique infection patterns arising from its four serot- ypes, (DENV-1,2,3,4). Its effects range from simple fever in primary infections to potentially fatal secondary infections. We analytically and numerically…
After their re-emergence in the last decades, dengue fever and other vector-borne diseases are a potential threat to the lives of millions of people. Based on a data set of dengue cases in the Brazilian city of Fortaleza, collected from…
The study of epidemiological systems has generated deep interest in exploring the dynamical complexity of common infectious diseases driven by seasonally varying contact rates. Mathematical modeling and field observations have shown that,…
Infectious diseases often involve multiple strains that interact through the immune response generated after an infection. This study investigates the conditions under which a two-strain epidemic model with partial cross-immunity can lead…
We examine a model system where attractors may consist of a heteroclinic cycle between chaotic sets; this `cycling chaos' manifests itself as trajectories that spend increasingly long periods lingering near chaotic invariant sets…
Dengue is a vector borne disease transmitted to humans by {\it{Aedes Aegypti}} mosquitoes carrying Dengue virus of different serotypes. Primarily an urban epidemic, Dengue exhibits complex spatial and temporal dynamics, influenced by many…
We consider an epidemiological model that includes waning and boosting of immunity. Assuming that repeated exposure to the pathogen fully restores immunity, we derive an SIRS-type model with discrete and distributed delays. First we prove…
Many infectious diseases are comprised of multiple strains with examples including Influenza, tuberculosis, and Dengue virus. The time evolution of such systems is linked to a complex landscape shaped by interactions between competing…
Deterministic compartmental models have been used extensively in modeling epidemic propagation. These models are required to fit available data and numerical procedures are often implemented to this end. But not every model architecture is…
Physiological stress fundamentally alters disease susceptibility in aquatic environments. In this paper, we develop a stress-structured epidemiological model where host vulnerability is dynamically driven by water quality. Analytically, we…