Statistics

Test equating using covariates may be applied to provide comparable scores from multiple test forms when no anchor items are available. However, its performance may be compromised if some of the covariates themselves are measured using…

Simulation-based inference with neural posterior estimation (NPE) often yields overconfident and unreliable posteriors under limited simulation budgets. To address this, we propose DRO-NPE, a distributionally robust approach that replaces…

The Egger intercept (EI) test is a widely used tool to detect horizontal pleiotropy in two-sample summary-data Mendelian randomization. A significant EI test suggests that either the average pleiotropic effect differs from zero (i.e.,…

Reinforcement learning with multinomial logistic (MNL) function approximation has become an important framework due to its flexibility and broad applicability. While existing studies have established regret guarantees under worst-case…

Digital health technologies enable high-frequency collection of data in near-continuous time and capture rich information about the health of individuals. The raw data collected by these devices often have a hierarchical functional…

The use of residential photovoltaics has increased dramatically in recent years. With battery systems becoming more affordable, the optimal operation of a photovoltaic-battery system can bring significant savings to households. Optimal…

We consider the problem of learning a counterfactually fair regressor. We adopt a causal uncertainty view in which counterfactual fairness is defined with resampled noise. We focus on obtaining theoretical fairness guarantees for a new…

Fairness-accuracy trade-offs are a central concern in the deployment of fairness-aware machine learning methods. When sensitive attributes are unavailable at inference time-the so called unawareness setting, principled methods for obtaining…

Intra-physician prescribing variability, the probability that one physician issues discordant decisions for two patients deemed comparable on observed covariates, holds great impact in quality of care, safety and cost. However, there are no…

We consider linear structural equation models with explicitly modelled latent variables. In such models, observed and latent variables solve linear equations including stochastic noise terms. The goal of our work is to identify the direct…

Bayesian inference can often be sensitive to the choice of hyperparameters of the prior or likelihood, yet defining and quantifying this sensitivity in a principled and computationally feasible way remains challenging in practice.…

Many problems in computational science and engineering become one-to-many after coarse graining, partial observation, or inverse reconstruction: a resolved state may not determine a unique subgrid forcing, a structural descriptor may not…

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have achieved remarkable empirical success, yet their training dynamics remain understood mainly from optimization rather than statistical principles. Here we develop a statistical framework for DNN training in…

Knowledge distillation is a powerful method for model compression, enabling the efficient deployment of complex deep learning models (teachers), including large language models. However, its underlying statistical mechanisms remain unclear,…

Backpropagation is the default learning rule for artificial neural networks and is often treated as the settled approach whenever differentiability is available. In this work, we revisit this convention through a theoretical lens of sample…

The Empirical Bayes (EB) procedure of Hauer et al. (2002) is the workhorse of highway safety analysis: it combines a Safety Performance Function with observed crash counts to produce shrinkage estimates of segment-level crash rates. EB…

The classic Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) is not invariant to reparameterization and can have a negative and unstable effective number of parameters. The reason for the effective number of parameters being negative is actually that…

This paper studies adaptive targeting under network interference in a bandit setting, where treatments applied to one individual may affect others through spillover effects. We consider a linear model in a sparse regime, where each…

Electricity price signals in modern power systems exhibit complex dependence structures that render forecasting inherently challenging. Our analysis of real-world pricing signals from the California Independent System Operator (CAISO)…

Existing training approaches for large language models learn a single set of parameters, based on large volumes of data, which is typically heterogeneous, conflicting and often outright contradictory. As a result, the model is forced to…