Statistics

Contrastive Representation Learning (CRL) has achieved strong empirical success in multiple machine learning disciplines, yet its theoretical sample complexity remains poorly understood. Existing analyses usually assume that input tuples…

Gaussian Process (GP) models provide a flexible framework for prediction and uncertainty quantification. For most covariance functions, however, exact GP prediction with $n$ points scales as $\mathcal{O}(n^3)$, making it prohibitively…

Clinical trials usually target average treatment effects, but treatment decisions are made for individuals. This tension motivates a common criticism of evidence-based medicine: a treatment that is beneficial on average may be inappropriate…

We study the problem of estimating the effect function for a continuous treatment, which maps each treatment value to a population-averaged outcome. A central challenge in this setting is confounding: treatment assignment often depends on…

This paper studies continuous-time stochastic control problems whose controlled states are fully non-Markovian and depend on unknown model parameters. Such problems arise naturally in path-dependent stochastic differential equations,…

A learning-to-defer (L2D) system decides, for each input, whether to predict on its own or to hand it to one of several available experts. The very well established recipe trains classifier and router jointly by treating the $K$ classes and…

Obtaining high-quality labels is costly, whereas unlabeled covariates are often abundant, motivating semi-supervised inference methods with reliable uncertainty quantification. Prediction-powered inference (PPI) leverages a machine-learning…

We study the ill-posed problem of recovering a probability measure flow from finitely many moving localized sensors using a Bayes Hilbert framework. Relative to a fixed reference probability measure, a probability law is represented by its…

Randomized saturation designs are two-stage experiments: they first randomly assign treatment probabilities over the clusters and then randomly assign the treatment to the units within the clusters. The existing literature on randomized…

There is enduring interest in disentangling the effects of skill and luck in sport. A key issue in Formula 1 is distinguishing between car-level and driver-level effects. Four elite teams currently dominate Formula 1 and have won every…

Learning-to-Defer routes each input to the expert that minimizes expected cost, but it assumes that the information available to every expert is fixed at decision time. Many modern systems violate this assumption: after selecting an expert,…

Feature-importance methods show promise in transforming machine learning models from predictive engines into tools for scientific discovery. However, due to data sampling and algorithmic stochasticity, expressive models can be unstable,…

This paper is concerned with differentiable resampling in the context of sequential Monte Carlo (e.g., particle filtering). Drawing on reparametrisation, we propose a new resampling method that is informative and instantly differentiable,…

We present the winning strategy for the EVA2025 Data Challenge, which aimed to estimate the probability of extreme precipitation events. These events occurred at most once in the dataset making the challenge fundamentally one of…

We introduce Bayesian Information-Theoretic Sampling for hierarchical GAussian Process Surrogates (BITS for GAPS), a framework enabling information-theoretic experimental design of Gaussian process-based surrogate models. Unlike standard…

Human migration exhibits complex spatiotemporal dependence driven by environmental and socioeconomic forces. Modeling such patterns at scale requires methods that accommodate many random effects while remaining feasible when raw data or…

Bayesian inference provides principled uncertainty quantification but is often limited by the challenges of prior and likelihood elicitation. The martingale posterior (MGP) (Fong et al., 2023) offers an alternative by replacing these…

We study the decoupled multi-armed bandit problem, where the learner separately selects one arm for exploration and one, possibly different, arm for exploitation at each round. In this setting, the loss of the explored arm is observed but…

Learning-to-Defer (L2D) enables hybrid decision-making by routing inputs either to a predictor or to external experts. While promising, L2D is highly vulnerable to adversarial perturbations, which can not only flip predictions but also…

Generative models frequently suffer miscalibration, wherein statistics of the sampling distribution, such as the fraction of generations in a given class, deviate from desired values. We frame calibration as a constrained optimization…