Economics
This paper reexamines the effects of the Latin Monetary Union (LMU) - a 19th century agreement among several European countries to standardize their currencies through a bimetallic system based on fixed gold and silver content - on trade.…
This paper introduces a contest-theoretic simplified model of triathlon as a sequential two-stage game. In Stage 1 (post-swim), participants decide whether to continue or withdraw from the contest, thereby generating an endogenous…
Does greater connectivity enhance the value of public information? I study a networked beauty contest game where agents balance adaptation to the fundamental with local coordination. The analysis reveals a stark non-monotonicity: while…
We examine behavioral axioms in decision theory that are satisfied approximately rather than exactly. We demonstrate that in key domains -- decisions under risk, uncertainty, and intertemporal choice -- behavior that \emph{almost} satisfies…
This paper studies how the timing of NGO activism shapes its effectiveness in influencing corporate behavior. Using data on 2,500 campaigns targeting U.S. firms, we show that campaigns timed at annual general meetings (AGMs) generate large…
We provide a comprehensive examination of the predictive performance of panel forecasting methods based on individual, pooling, fixed effects, and empirical Bayes estimation, and propose optimal weights for forecast combination schemes. We…
Specifying the information structure in strategic environments is difficult for empirical researchers. We develop a test of information ordering that examines whether the true information structure is at least as informative as a proposed…
This paper suggests methods for estimation of the $\tau$-quantile, $\tau\in(0,1)$, as a parameter along with the other finite-dimensional parameters identified by general conditional quantile restrictions. We employ a generalized method of…
Extreme political shocks may reshape economies not only through contemporaneous disruption but by altering beliefs about the distribution of future states. We study how such belief ruptures affect the cost of capital, expectations, and…
We propose a nonparametric estimator of the empirical distribution function (EDF) of the latent spot variance of the log-price of a financial asset. We show that over a fixed time span our realized EDF (or REDF) -- inferred from noisy…
We provide a set of probabilistic laws for estimating the quadratic variation of continuous semimartingales with realized range-based variance -- a statistic that replaces every squared return of realized variance with a normalized squared…
Prediction markets mobilize financial incentives to forecast binary event outcomes through the aggregation of dispersed beliefs and heterogeneous information. Their growing popularity and demonstrated predictive accuracy in political…
The emergence of large language models (LLMs) is reshaping how people engage in political discourse online. We examine how the release of ChatGPT altered ideological and emotional patterns in the largest political forum on Reddit. Analysis…
Does euro adoption affect long-run economic growth? Existing evidence is mixed, reflecting limited treated countries, long horizons that challenge inference, and heterogeneity across member states. We estimate causal dynamic and…
A principal must allocate a set of heterogeneous tasks (or objects) among multiple agents. The principal has preferences over the allocation. Each agent has preferences over which tasks they are assigned, which are their private…
China's marriage registrations have declined substantially, dropping from 13.47 million couples in 2013 to 6.1 million in 2024. This study examined sentiment and moral elements underlying 219,358 marriage-related posts from Weibo and…
GenAI solutions like GitHub Copilot have been shown to increase the productivity of software developers. Yet prior work remains unclear on the quality of code produced and the challenges of maintaining it in software projects. If quality…
This article examines the political consequences of terrorism in Burkina Faso. Using a dataset combining geolocated terrorist events from ACLED (from 2015 to 2024) with public opinion data from Afrobarometer, I compare the effect of…
A welfare-maximizing designer allocates two kinds of goods using two wasteful screening instruments: ordeals, which enter agents' utilities additively, and damages, which harm agents in proportion to their values for the goods. If agents…
With a multilateral vertical contracting model of media markets, we examine upstream competition and contractual arrangements in content provision. We analyze the trade of content by the Nash bargaining solution and the downstream…