Economics

Conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) quantifies systemic financial risk by measuring the loss quantile of one asset, conditional on another asset experiencing distress. We develop a Transformer-based methodology that integrates financial news…

This paper asks whether regulatory monitoring exhibits nonlinear capacity limits as the scale and complexity of the regulated environment increase. Using a county--year panel of U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) inspections merged…

Recessions are periods in which the least productive firms in the economy exit, and as the economy recovers, they are replaced by new and more productive entrants. These cleansing effects improve the average firm productivity. At the same…

The boundary discontinuity (BD) design is a non-experimental method for identifying causal effects that exploits a thresholding rule based on a bivariate score and a boundary curve. This widely used method generalizes the univariate…

This paper provides an introduction to Double/Debiased Machine Learning (DML). DML is a general approach to performing inference about a target parameter in the presence of nuisance functions: objects that are needed to identify the target…

Copyright law focuses on whether a new work is "substantially similar" to an existing one, but generative AI can closely imitate style without copying content, a capability now central to ongoing litigation. We argue that existing…

Obtaining reliable inferences with traditional difference-in-differences (DiD) methods can be difficult. Problems can arise when both outcomes and errors are serially correlated, when there are few clusters or few treated clusters, when…

We analyze strategic communication when advice is generated by a reinforcement-learning algorithm rather than by a fully rational sender. Building on the cheap-talk framework of Crawford and Sobel (1982), an advisor adapts its messages…

Assessing an individual's contribution within a team remains a fundamental challenge across many domains, particularly when recognition for collective achievements is limited to only a few members. This issue is especially important in…

It is well established that the US prewar output was more volatile and less shock persistent than the postwar output. This is often attributed to the data interpolation employed to construct the prewar series. Our analytical results,…

Optimal transport is the problem of designing a joint distribution for two random variables with fixed marginals. In virtually the entire literature on this topic, the objective is to minimize expected cost. This paper is the first to study…

We develop an empirical Bayes (EB) G-modeling framework for short-panel linear models with nonparametric prior for the random intercepts, slopes, dynamics, and non-spherical error variances. We establish identification and consistency of…

Televised debates between presidential candidates are often regarded as the exemplar of persuasive communication. Yet, recent evidence from Le Pennec and Pons (2023) indicates that they may not sway voters as strongly as popular belief…

Many studies exploit variation in the timing of policy adoption across units as an instrument for treatment. This paper formalizes the underlying identification strategy as an instrumented difference-in-differences (DID-IV). In this design,…

A goodness-of-fit index measures the consistency of consumption data with a given model of utility-maximization. We show that for the class of well-behaved (i.e., continuous and increasing) utility functions there is no goodness-of-fit…

We consider estimation of large approximate factor models in high-dimensional panels of stationary time series using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). We review the key results establishing the necessary and sufficient conditions for…

This paper shows that jumps in financial asset prices are often erroneously identified and are, in fact, rare events accounting for a very small proportion of the total price variation. We apply new econometric techniques to a comprehensive…

A principal delegates choice to an agent whose decision depends on both beliefs and tastes. The principal can steer the delegated decision using two costly instruments: (i) an information policy that determines a Bayes--plausible…

We study identification in models of aggregate choice generated by unobserved behavioral types. An analyst observes only aggregate choice behavior, while the population distribution of types and their type-level choice patterns are latent.…

Belief elicitation is ubiquitous in experiments but can distort behavior in the main tasks. We study when, and how, an experimenter can ask for a series of action-dependent belief statistics after a subject chooses an action, while…