Economics
Two-sided platforms must recommend users to users, where matches (termed \emph{dates} in this paper) require mutual interest and activity on both sides. Naive ranking by predicted dating probabilities concentrates exposure on a small subset…
This paper presents a Hayashi-Yoshida type estimator for the covariation matrix of continuous It\^o semimartingales observed with noise. The coordinates of the multivariate process are assumed to be observed at highly frequent…
We show how pre-averaging can be applied to the problem of measuring the ex-post covariance of financial asset returns under microstructure noise and non-synchronous trading. A pre-averaged realised covariance is proposed, and we present an…
This paper synthesises the existing research on the dynamics of innovation diffusion, with a focus on Bass-type models and their extensions. The theoretical foundation of innovation diffusion proposed by Rogers (1962) and the seminal work…
Robustness checks are routine in empirical work, but there is no standard statistical procedure to formally measure what one can learn from them. I propose a "robustness radius" measure to quantify the amount by which the robustness checks…
In this paper, we present a realized range-based multipower variation theory, which can be used to estimate return variation and draw jump-robust inference about the diffusive volatility component, when a high-frequency record of asset…
The BLP model is the workhorse framework in empirical IO and enables estimation of demand models for differentiated products using aggregate product shares. In practice, however, the share of the outside good is often unobserved. This paper…
This paper investigates the extent of political rent seeking in Hungary in the 2010s. Political capitalism--where powerful private interests influence public policy for private gain--creates opportunities for rent seeking that vary across…
We quantify the Tariff Laffer Curve for the U.S. using a multi-sector Ricardian model calibrated to the 2025 US trade war. We find revenue-maximizing tariffs of 20--30 percent and welfare-maximizing rates of 0--10 percent. We define the…
We propose a new principal-agent framework where a principal communicates a roadmap -- a set of plausible outcome models and a prior belief over them -- to guide an agent who is learning the value of innovation. The agent trusts the prior…
This paper investigates systemic risk transmission across stablecoin markets using Quantile Vector Autoregression (QVAR). Analyzing eight major stablecoins with day data coverage from 2021 to 2025, supplemented by minute-level event studies…
This paper develops a House Price-at-Risk framework to examine how housing subsidies, credit conditions, and supply factors influence the distribution of house price growth in Hungary. Using quantile regression with adaptive LASSO variable…
Whether and how race is used in selective admissions remains a central question in higher education and civil rights law. In Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard (2023), the Supreme Court held that race-based affirmative action in…
In mainstream neoclassical economics, utility maximization is the only engine of individual action, and the other or the social, if it is modeled for decisions deemed fundamental, it is done as a tacit externality parameter affecting an…
This work contributes to a foundational question in economic theory: how do individual-level cognitive biases interact with collective choice mechanisms? We study a setting where voters hold intrinsic preference rankings over a set of…
The rapid expansion of low-cost renewable electricity combined with end-use electrification in transport, industry, and buildings offers a promising path to deep decarbonisation. However, aligning variable supply with demand requires…
When aggregating Subjective Expected Utility preferences, the Pareto principle leads to an impossibility result unless the individuals have a common belief. This paper examines the source of this impossibility in more detail by considering…
We study the properties of macroeconomic survey forecast response averages as the number of survey respondents grows. Such averages are ``portfolios" of forecasts. We characterize the speed and pattern of the gains from diversification as a…
Given data on a random variable \(Y\), a prediction set with miscoverage level \(\alpha \in (0,1)\) is a set that contains a new draw of \(Y\) with probability \(1-\alpha\). Among all prediction sets satisfying this coverage property, the…
Standard optimal growth models implicitly impose a ``perpetual existence'' constraint, which can ethically justify infinite misery in stagnant economies. This paper investigates the optimal longevity of a dynasty within a Critical-Level…