Economics
We analyze a reputational bargaining game in which a central player negotiates simultaneously with two peripheral players. Each player is either rational or a commitment type who never concedes and insists on a fixed share, and concessions…
The US economy is transitioning away from fossil fuels toward sources of green energy. California policymakers have adopted the goal of carbon neutrality by 2045 or earlier. Within California, Kern County accounts for over 70 percent of oil…
We develop a new algorithm for inference in structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) identified with sign restrictions that can accommodate big data and modern identification schemes. The key innovation of our approach is to move beyond…
Variations in the low- and high-frequency components of temperature may have distinct impacts on economic outcomes. Parametric and non-parametric estimates from three panels of data all find significant heterogeneity in the relative…
Firms are more likely to introduce products in markets where they anticipate stronger demand. They also possess information that is unobserved to researchers. This creates endogenous selection bias in the estimation of demand parameters.…
This paper proposes a framework and solution concept for repeated coalitional behavior. We model history-dependent schemes that deter coalitions from blocking using continuation promises and punishments. We evaluate the effectiveness of…
The rapid expansion of remote work following the last pandemic has renewed interest in whether spatial decoupling of residence from workplace can contribute to rebalancing regional development across the European Union. This paper examines…
We study identification in structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) in which the endogenous variables enter nonlinearly on the left-hand side of the model, a feature we term endogenous nonlinearity, to distinguish it from the more familiar…
Exclusion and exogeneity are core assumptions in instrumental variable (IV) analyses, but their empirical validity is often debated. This paper develops new sensitivity analyses for these assumptions. Our results accommodate arbitrary…
This paper establishes (set) identification results in a dynamic dyadic network formation model with time-varying observed covariates, lagged local network statistics, and unobserved heterogeneity in the form of fixed effects. Our framework…
The AKM model introduced by Abowd, Kramarz and Margolis (1999) has become a workhorse to study worker and firm heterogeneity, and to understand the sources of wage dispersion in the labor market using linked employer-employee data. In this…
Over the past three decades, extreme climate events have caused losses of worth USD 4.5 trillion. Using collective bargaining model, I find that the gendered labour supply response to adverse shocks is not straightforward since it depends…
We consider the problem of performing inference on the number of common stochastic trends when data is generated by a cointegrated CKSVAR (a two-regime, piecewise affine SVAR; Mavroeidis, 2021), using a modified version of the Breitung…
This paper introduces a new event-based measure of bilateral geopolitical alignment and provides evidence that it shapes economic growth. The measure is built from 373,020 geopolitical events across 193 countries over 1960--2024, compiled…
Capital growth, at large scales only, arrives with no help from net saving, and consequently with no help from consumption constraint. Net saving, at large scales, is sacrifice of consumption with nothing in return.
Recent waves of technological transformation are reshaping work in uncertain and hard-to-predict ways. However, jobs at the forefront of the digitizing economy offer an early glimpse of these changes and leave rich activity traces. We…
We study a canonical collective action game with incomplete information. Individuals attempt to coordinate to achieve a shared goal, while also facing a temptation to free-ride. Consuming more similar information about the fundamentals can…
In this paper, we analyse the influence of estimating a constant term on the bias of the conditional sum-of-squares (CSS) estimator in a stationary or non-stationary type-II ARFIMA ($p_1$,$d$,$p_2$) model. We derive expressions for the…
A quota mechanism, such as a mandatory grading curve, links together multiple decisions. We analyze the performance of quota mechanisms when the number of linked decisions is finite and the designer has imperfect knowledge of the type…
We develop a labor demand model that encompasses pre-match hiring cost arising from tight labor markets. Through the lens of the model, we study the effect of labor market tightness on firms' labor demand by applying novel shift-share…