Economics
We propose the Split-Session Cluster GARCH model for heavy-tailed multivariate dependence among asset returns decomposed into overnight and intraday components. The model uses convolution-$t$ distributions to allow tail behavior to differ…
Online shopping is a growing trend, particularly following the COVID-19 lock-downs enacted by many cities. Understanding these trends requires robust panel dat methods. However, panel data (i.e., with repeated measurements of the same…
Consignment auctions, in which bidders first receive free initial endowments of a good and must then consign them to a subsequent uniform price auction, are often used in emissions allowance trading for the environmental regulation of…
Recommending the correct set of energy conservation measures (ECMs) for a building is a structured, multi-label prediction problem in which a task-specific supervised model has weak training signal and a general language model has no…
Conventional heteroskedasticity diagnostics ask whether the conditional variance of the regression disturbance varies with covariates. This paper asks a different question: when does that variation matter for inference on the estimand of…
Green growth through circular economy is the dominant institutional response to ecological breakdown. Yet its insufficiency is structural: material flow arithmetic prevents loop closing at scale in a growing economy, thermodynamic…
Modern world models -- Dreamer, transformer world models (IRIS, Genie), and JEPA / next-latent architectures -- learn dynamics from observed trajectories but share a weakness: their transition map is disciplined only where data were seen,…
Traditional theory predicts equivalent effects of matching and rebate subsidies at equal prices, yet experiments favor matching. Refinements narrow this gap but retain compulsory assignment; take-up is voluntary in practice. We test this…
This study examines the impact of the 1923 Great Kanto Earthquake on population distribution within Tokyo City. The earthquake triggered massive fires that devastated nearly half of the city, including much of its urban core. To investigate…
Public official-information request records contain process signals. They can support research, workflow review, and human-supervised agent help. Yet they also mix observed correspondence, platform states, inferred events, and legal…
Empirical studies often observe outcomes only for selected units, and treatment may change who is observed. This paper studies prediction in randomized studies with one-sided selection. Standard prediction intervals can fail because treated…
Automation affects public budgets through wages and the tax base, and also through inflows into social insurance. We estimate the effect of industrial robot exposure on Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) applications using…
Housing markets capitalize new information regarding future risks and ownership costs, yet little is known about how markets respond when sequential shocks differ fundamentally in nature. This study examines how Florida's condominium market…
We investigate the relationship between consanguineous (close-kin) marriage and women's acceptance of intimate partner violence (IPV) in Pakistan. We argue that consanguineous marriages reinforce overlapping kinship networks that intensify…
While the operational benefits of Artificial Intelligence (AI) are well-documented, the mechanisms through which firms leverage AI for strategic exploration and radical innovation remain under-theorized. This study addresses the black box…
We introduce endogenous shareholding auctions for production economies where a monopolist must elicit consumer demand in order to determine price and quantity. Each of these auctions has the property that the auction's profit is distributed…
When an early information producer is judged only after others have reviewed and revised the work, the same review that sharpens the final decision can blur the question of who deserves the credit. This paper asks how an organization can…
I develop the asymptotic theory of instrument strength for Granular Instrumental Variables (GIV) in large panels with both $N$ and $T$ growing. The strength of the GIV depends on the presence of dominant units. I formalise what dominance…
Measuring the long-term opportunity cost of interventions remains a critical challenge in e-commerce A/B testing. While strategic levers (such as dynamic pricing, ranking algorithms, and promotional campaigns) trigger shifts in consumer…
Average wages in Japan rose until the mid-1990s but stagnated thereafter. This paper studies Japan's long-run wage stagnation by decomposing changes in average log real hourly wages from 1980 to 2024 into four components: demographic change…