Economics
We develop inference under model uncertainty due to weak, noisy, multiple candidate restrictions and theories, and nuisance control covariates. A unified framework is given with degrees of misspecification and corresponding shadow prices,…
We examine these relationships using a panel dataset of more than 80,000 trip observations from 100 participants through a custom-built mobile application. A joint revealed preference (RP) and stated preference (SP) framework is used to…
Parameter estimates in misspecified models converge to pseudo-true parameter values, which minimize a population objective function. Pseudo-true values often differ from quantities of economic interest, raising questions of how, if at all,…
Satellite data are increasingly used to measure economic activity, yet port-level trade remains largely unmeasured from space. This paper combines synthetic aperture radar imagery, nighttime lights, and port characteristics to measure…
This paper introduces a class of jackknife-based test statistics for linear regression models with endogeneity and heteroskedasticity in the presence of many potentially weak instrumental variables. The tests may be used when considering…
This paper examines the extent to which individual time preferences are associated with the willingness to accept different tax burdens. The first is an intertemporal redistribution in which a current consumption tax increase is exchanged…
We use quadratic vector autoregressions, motivated by pruned second-order perturbation solutions to DSGE models, as a laboratory to evaluate how well popular local projection (LP) specifications recover true impulse responses in nonlinear…
This paper develops a model of \textit{identification design} and applies it to robust causal inference in microeconometrics. The decision maker observes the population distribution of signals generated by an information structure and ranks…
For the 2024/25 season, the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) introduced an incomplete round-robin format in the Champions League and Europa League, replacing the traditional group stage with a single league table of all 36…
If a sender in a persuasion game can use a sequence of experiments rather than a single experiment, does this change the sender's value? We show that the sender can benefit more from dynamic persuasion than from static persuasion when the…
Do social networks and peer influence shape major life decisions in highly polarized settings? We explore this question by examining how peers influenced the allegiances of West Point cadets during the American Civil War. Leveraging…
AggregateEU is a new centralised mechanism that provides a no-commitment platform to trade natural gas in the European Union. Throughout the consultation process, AggregateEU has been mocked as `Tinder of the European gas markets' as it…
This paper proposes a quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) estimator for break points in high-dimensional factor models, specifically accounting for multiple structural breaks. We begin by establishing a necessary and sufficient condition to…
We show that a rational agent with true and refinable knowledge of events cannot know if she knows everything or not. This epistemic limitation is not resolved by introspection about tautologies or by learning about new events.
Antitrust authorities frequently rely on structural divestitures to address competitive concerns raised by mergers. Using census-level establishment data and proprietary transaction records from the U.S. grocery sector, we provide…
We leverage a quasi natural experiment from India on introduction of free bus schemes for women across five states to study it's impact on women's workforce participation. We use two rounds of the representative Time Use Survey and a triple…
This paper studies the 2021 U.S. inflation forecasting failure. I show that the failure was primarily driven by sample composition rather than functional-form misspecification: estimation samples dominated by the Great Moderation…
This paper presents a framework for binary autoregressive time series in which each observation is a Bernoulli variable whose success probability evolves with past outcomes and probabilities, in the spirit of GARCH-type dynamics,…
Consumers discover their preferences through experience, yet the sequence and composition of those experiences are often designed by firms, digital platforms, or policymakers. We introduce a ``data-design'' framework for preference…
Electricity markets are changing, driven by large-scale renewable integration and rising demand from electrification and digitalisation. This raises fundamental questions about how electricity prices form as the relationships among key…