Economics
Regulatory and contractual constraints on individual exposures are standard in insurance and reinsurance markets, but a poorly designed constraint can distort the economic incentives of risk-averse agents. In the unconstrained problem, the…
This paper characterises optimal incentive schemes for ESG disclosure in a continuous-time principal-agent setting. We model a risk-averse principal (e.g., a platform or standard-setter) contracting with a team of heterogeneous agents whose…
Education is a major source of inequality in income and health. Polygenic indices for educational attainment (EA-PGI) capture both direct and indirect genetic influences on education, but their effects on income and health remain unclear.…
This paper proposes linear estimation methods for dynamic fixed effects logit models only with time effects (i.e., those only with time dummies and only with time trends). The linear estimators point-identify transformations of parameters…
Causal mediation analysis is a powerful tool for disentangling the total effect of a treatment into its direct effect on the outcome and its indirect effect mediated through an intermediate variable. However, in observational studies,…
Large monetary expansions do not necessarily generate consumer-price inflation, challenging scalar views of "money supply." Here we propose that monetary function is phase-dependent: newly issued base money can occupy distinct functional…
This paper develops a decomposition methodology for common agency games in which each principal's payoff depends on her own outcome and the agent's type, but not on rivals' outcomes. The key step reduces each principal's best-response…
AI/ML methods are increasingly used in economics to generate binary variables (or labels) via classification algorithms. When these generated variables are included as covariates in regressions, even small misclassification errors can…
Generative AI acts as a disruptive technological shock to evaluative organizations. In academic peer review, it enters both sides of the market: authors use AI to polish submissions, and reviewers use it to generate plausible reports…
This paper studies the transmission of productivity shocks in general equilibrium production networks, when firms in different sectors operate under informational rigidity and rely on external debt. Rigidity breaks the Modigliani-Miller…
We study optimal estimation when the likelihood may be misspecified. Building on tools from the theory of decision-making under uncertainty, we analyze a class of axiomatically grounded optimality criteria which nests several existing…
Firms are deploying more capable AI systems, but organizational controls often have not kept pace. These systems can generate greater productivity gains, but high-value uses require broader authority exposure -- data access, workflow…
We develop a continuous-time penalized regression framework for the estimation of time-varying coefficients and variable selection when both the response and covariates are It\^o semimartingales with jumps. The coefficient paths are…
We evaluate subsidy mechanisms in the FCC's Rural Health Care program using administrative data covering the full population of participants. The original price-cap mechanism removes cost-containment incentives for health care providers. An…
We digitize and analyze the near-universe of National Socialist German Workers' Party (NSDAP) membership records and link them to newly digitized population and industrial censuses. Four findings emerge. First, as the party expanded, its…
Empirical analyses of ordinal outcomes using repeated cross-sectional data rely on marginal distributions, leaving the joint distribution unobserved and the sources of distributional change unidentified. This paper develops a framework to…
We study a contest in which $N$ players sequentially draw from a distribution as many times as they want at a fixed cost per draw, with no recall, and the highest accepted value wins a prize. In the unique symmetric equilibrium, the…
As awareness of health and environmental issues grows, the demand for organic food is rising worldwide, yet consumers still struggle to distinguish genuine organic products from conventional ones. This information asymmetry creates…
A seller of a dynamic information service under an information-throughput constraint screens buyers who privately differ in urgency. We characterize the revenue-optimal mechanism: deploy a single preference-aligned belief process; screen…
We show that since the mid-1990s, the trade-promoting effects of tariff liberalization have been increasingly offset by deteriorating geopolitical alignment, slowing trade globalization after 2007. To quantify this barrier, we use large…