Economics
We propose a model of causal persuasion, in which a sender selectively discloses a set of variables together with their true joint distribution and proposes a subjective causal model that binds them. A receiver is persuaded by this model…
We propose a clustered local projection (clustered LP) method to estimate impulse response functions in a class of time-varying models where parameter variation is linked to a low-dimensional matrix of observables. We show that the…
This paper explores a mechanism for mitigating sovereign risk in emerging markets without risks mutualization. The mechanism involves pooling diversified portfolios of sovereign bonds and issuing them in tranches, with the senior tranche…
Using data on shootings in U.S.\ K--12 schools from 1981 to 2022, we estimate the effect of temperature on school shootings and assess climate-change impacts. We find that days with maximum temperatures above 90$^{\circ}$F increase school…
In this paper, we examine identification in dynamic panel logit models with state dependence, a first-order Markov feedback process, and individual unobserved heterogeneity by introducing sufficient statistics for the feedback process and…
This paper introduces a direct differentiation-based framework that unifies the derivation of influence functions across parametric, nonparametric, and semiparametric models. We show that the Riesz representer of the functional derivative…
Trust mechanisms diverge between centralized and decentralized exchanges, representing distinct sociotechnical governance paradigms. However, quantifying trust dynamics and their redistribution between these architectures remains…
Despite many decades of research, economically grounded models that analyse energy consumption and energy-efficiency adoption within a unified framework remain underdeveloped. This article addresses this gap by proposing a model of…
Correlated equilibria arise naturally when agents communicate or rely on intermediaries such as recommendation systems. We study when a given Nash equilibrium can be improved within the set of correlated equilibria for general objectives.…
We prove the validity of using subsampling method for inference under a two-way clustered panel in which the time effects are serially correlated. Subsamples should be drawn without replacement from randomly partitioned individual index set…
This paper studies the interactive fixed effects (IFE) estimator in a panel-data setting with heterogeneous treatment effects. We show that, if the treatment-effect heterogeneity admits a linear factor structure, the IFE estimator could…
Prediction-market price moves are widely treated as informationally equivalent: a price jump is read the same way regardless of whether it reflects durable Bayesian updating, transient liquidity pressure, strategic position adjustment, or…
This paper develops a doubly robust extension of local-projections difference-in-differences (LP-DiD) for staggered absorbing treatments. The resulting estimator, DRLPDID, preserves the LP-DiD local-stack ATT target and is consistent when…
We study stability notions for networked many-to-many matching markets with individually insignificant agents in distributional form. Outcomes are formulated as joint distributions over characteristics of agents and contract choices.…
Organizations routinely make strategic budget allocations under operational constraints, but often lack a principled way to assess whether realized allocations were close to the best feasible choices in hindsight. We present a retrospective…
This paper develops a geometric diagnostic framework for classical inequality decomposability. Representing the simplest nontrivial setting of three-person income distributions as points on the two-dimensional income-share simplex, we…
Digital platforms increasingly face a common challenge in the age of artificial intelligence (AI): how to elicit richer and more useful user-generated content (UGC) without fully automating content production. We study this question in the…
Betas from spot regressions are central to asset pricing and risk management, as measures of systematic risk. This paper develops a new estimation and inference framework for spot regressions by leveraging high-frequency candlesticks,…
I study how organisations choose selection procedures in a competitive environment. Two firms compete to hire candidates of unknown productivity from a common pool. Firms simultaneously post a selection procedure which consists of a test…
We introduce KRED (Korea Research Economic Database), a FRED-MD-compatible monthly macroeconomic database for Korea designed for data-rich policy analysis and cross-country comparison. KRED contains 125 monthly series from ECOS, KOSIS, and…