Economics
We propose the Markov Switching Dynamic Shrinkage process (MSDSP), nesting the Dynamic Shrinkage Process (DSP) of Kowal et al. (2019). We revisit the Meese-Rogoff puzzle (Meese and Rogoff, 1983a,b, 1988) by applying the MSDSP to the…
With the increasing frequency of major natural disasters, understanding their political consequences is of paramount importance for democratic accountability. The existing literature is deeply divided, with some studies finding that voters…
It is common practice to incorporate additional covariates in empirical economics. In the context of Regression Discontinuity (RD) designs, covariate adjustment plays multiple roles, making it essential to understand its impact on analysis…
In many settings -- like market research and social choice -- people may be presented with unfamiliar options. Classical mechanisms may perform poorly because they fail to incentivize people to learn about these options, or worse, encourage…
This paper examines how various categories of Ethereum stakers respond to changes in the consensus issuance schedule, and the potential impact of such changes on the composition of the staking market. To this end, we have develop and…
In this paper, we define an underlying data generating process that allows for different magnitudes of cross-sectional dependence, along with time series autocorrelation. This is achieved via high-dimensional moving average processes of…
We study reputation formation where a long-run player repeatedly observes private signals and takes actions. Short-run players observe the long-run player's past actions but not her past signals. The long-run player can thus develop a…
Objectives: To combat money laundering, banks raise and review alerts on transactions that exceed confidential thresholds. However, the thresholds may be leaked to criminals, allowing them to break up large transactions into amounts under…
Most organizations rely on managers to identify talented workers. However, managers who are evaluated on team performance have an incentive to hoard workers. This study provides the first empirical evidence of talent hoarding using…
Stablecoins, with a capitalization exceeding 200 billion USD as of January 2025, have shown significant growth, with annual transaction volumes exceeding 10 trillion dollars in 2023 and nearly doubling that figure in 2024. This exceptional…
We use a controlled experiment to study how information acquisition impacts candidate evaluations. We provide evaluators with group-level information on performance and the opportunity to acquire additional, individual-level performance…
Developing robust inference for models with nonparametric Unobserved Heterogeneity (UH) is both important and challenging. We propose novel Debiased Machine Learning (DML) procedures for valid inference on functionals of UH, allowing for…
There are many economic contexts where the productivity and welfare performance of institutions and policies depend on who matches with whom. Examples include caseworkers and job seekers in job search assistance programs, medical doctors…
We study the production, entry, and technological decisions of firms in the presence of bribery. We find that bribery can be justified even in the absence of bureaucratic inefficiencies. We document substantial technology-specific…
Triple Differences (DDD) designs are widely used in empirical work to relax parallel trends assumptions in Difference-in-Differences (DiD) settings. This paper highlights that common DDD implementations -- such as taking the difference…
We examine the impact of livelihood diversification on food insecurity amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Our analysis uses household panel data from Ethiopia, Malawi, and Nigeria in which the first round was collected immediately prior to the…
New technologies are sometimes introduced at times or in places that lack the necessary data to conduct a well-identified impact evaluation. We develop a methodology that combines Earth observation (EO) data and advances in machine learning…
We introduce a new randomization procedure for experiments based on the cube method, which achieves near-exact covariate balance. This ensures compliance with standard balance tests and allows for balancing on many covariates, enabling more…
We introduce and analyze a novel family of power indices tailored for sharing networks in technological markets, where firms operate competitively within, but not across, distinct industrial sectors. In these settings, inter-firm…
Do governments adjust budgetary policy to rising public debt, precluding fiscal unsustainability? Using budget data for 52 industrial and emerging economies since 1990, we apply panel methods accounting for cross-sectional dependence and…