Economics
We investigate how to learn treatment effects away from the cutoff in multiple-cutoff regression discontinuity designs. Using a microeconomic model, we demonstrate that the parallel-trend type assumption proposed in the literature is…
We empirically examine the intraday return- and volatility-forecasting power of on-chain flow data for Bitcoin(BTC), Ethereum(ETH), and Tether(USDT). We find ETH net inflows to strongly predict ETH returns and volatility in the 2017-2023…
A multi-product monopolist faces a buyer who is privately informed about his valuations for the goods. As is well-known, optimal mechanisms are in general complicated, while simple mechanisms -- such as pure bundling or separate sales --…
A rational bubble is a situation in which the asset price exceeds its fundamental value defined by the present discounted value of dividends in a rational equilibrium model. We discuss the recent development of the theory of rational…
Standard empirical tools for merger analysis assume price data, which are often unavailable. I characterize sufficient conditions for identifying the unilateral effects of mergers without price data using the first-order approach and merger…
We propose a Hausman test for the correct specification of unobserved heterogeneity in both linear and nonlinear fixed-effects panel data models. The null hypothesis is that heterogeneity is either time-invariant or, symmetrically,…
Econometricians have usefully separated study of estimation into identification and statistical components. Identification analysis, which assumes knowledge of the probability distribution generating observable data, places an upper bound…
We propose a new approach to the semiparametric analysis of panel data binary choice models with fixed effects and dynamics (lagged dependent variables). The model we consider has the same random utility framework as in Honore and…
I describe a Bayesian persuasion problem where Receiver has a private type representing a cutoff for choosing Sender's preferred action, and Sender has maxmin preferences over all Receiver type distributions with known mean and bounds. This…
We study rationally inattentive echo chambers, where players allocate limited attention to biased primary sources and to other players as secondary sources to acquire information about an uncertain state. The resulting Poisson attention…
An important class of structural models studies the determinants of skill formation and the optimal timing of interventions. In this paper, I provide new identification results for these models and investigate the effects of seemingly…
In this paper we first propose a root-n-consistent Conditional Maximum Likelihood (CML) estimator for all the common parameters in the panel logit AR(p) model with strictly exogenous covariates and fixed effects. Our CML estimator (CMLE)…
We develop a continuous-time principal-agent model of gig work, where contractual flexibility allows the employer to adjust fixed pay and output-based incentives dynamically. The worker's participation depends on a backward-looking…
As health system modeling (HSM) advances to include more complete descriptions of the production of healthcare, it is important to establish a robust conceptual characterisation of the production process. For the Thanzi La Onse model in…
This study analyzes the 2018 Chinese Household Income Project survey data to evaluate the income gaps between an "outsider" ethnic minority group, the Mongols, an "insider" ethnic minority group, the Manchus, and the majority Han group in…
This paper develops a framework for identifying treatment effects when a policy simultaneously alters both the incentive to participate and the outcome of interest -- such as hiring decisions and wages in response to employment subsidies;…
Extensive research demonstrates that many households eligible for means-tested benefits do not claim them, a phenomenon known as non-take-up. Empirical studies frequently conceptualise non-take-up as a rational decision, occurring when the…
The Decentralized Physical Infrastructure (DePIN) market is revolutionizing the sharing economy through token-based economics and smart contracts that govern decentralized operations. By 2024, DePIN projects have exceeded \$10 billion in…
This paper examines how adverse supply-side shocks in domestic input markets influence firms' vertical outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) decisions. While the theoretical basis for cost-driven OFDI is well established, empirical…
Many digital platforms offer advertisers experimentation tools like Meta's Lift and A/B tests to optimize their ad campaigns. Lift tests compare outcomes between users eligible to see ads versus users in a no-ad control group. In contrast,…