Economics

Assume that one is interested in estimating an average treatment effect (ATE), equal to a weighted average of $S$ conditional average treatment effects (CATEs). One has unbiased estimators of the CATEs. One could just average the CATE…

This paper introduces a framework for modeling the cost of information acquisition based on the principle of cost-minimization. We study the reduced-form \emph{indirect cost} of information generated by the sequential minimization of a…

Large-scale food fortification (LSFF) is a widely accepted intervention to alleviate micronutrient deficiencies, yet policy implementation is often incomplete and its effects on diet costs are not well established. We estimated the extent…

We study the proportional division value in TU-games, which distributes the worth of the grand coalition in proportion to each player's stand-alone worth. Focusing on fixed-population consistency, we characterize the proportional division…

Accurate forecasting of downside risks to economic growth is critically important for policymakers and financial institutions, particularly in the wake of recent economic crises. This paper extends the Growth-at-Risk (GaR) approach by…

This paper uses daily Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data to estimate the causal effect of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, a highly competitive race whose outcome resolved lingering uncertainty on election day, on…

Depending on the persistence of the underlying Markov chain shock, the standard New Keynesian model predicts starkly different conclusions at the Effective Lower Bound. We clear up this morass by using a truncated Markov chain. We prove…

A sender persuades a strategically naive decisionmaker (DM) by committing privately to an experiment. Sender's choice of experiment is unknown to the DM, who must form her posterior beliefs nonparametrically by applying some learning rule…

This paper studies the supply and effects of causal rhetoric in U.S. politics. We define causal rhetoric as assigning responsibility for political outcomes, via claims of blame and merit. Training a supervised classifier, we detect causal…

We analyze how uncertain technologies should be robustly regulated and how regulation should evolve with new information. An adaptive sandbox comprising a zero marginal tax up to an evolving quantity limit is (i) robust: it delivers optimal…

Synthetic Control Methods (SCMs) have become a fundamental tool for comparative case studies. The core idea behind SCMs is to estimate treatment effects by predicting counterfactual outcomes for a treated unit using a weighted combination…

We consider the problem of estimating personalized treatment policies that are "externally valid" or "generalizable": they perform well in target populations that differ from the experimental (or training) population from which the data are…

This paper investigates Minsky's cycles by extending the paper of stockhammer et al. (2019) with a nonlinear model to capture possible local real-financial endogenous cycles. We trace nonlinear regime changes and check the presence of…

We study the classical probabilistic assignment problem, where finitely many indivisible objects are to be probabilistically or proportionally assigned among an equal number of agents. Each agent has an initial deterministic endowment and a…

In this paper, we propose new specification tests for regression models with measurement errors in the explanatory variables. Inspired by the integrated conditional moment (ICM) approach, we use a deconvoluted residual-marked empirical…

We propose a model of cross-pollination among online social media (OSM) websites, where the dynamics of user interactions mimic insect-mediated pollen transfer by pollinators. A pollinator acts as a vehicle enabling users to visit multiple…

To choose between two discrete goods, a consumer pays attention to only those with prices below a threshold. From these, she chooses her most preferred good. We assume consumers in a population have the same preference but may have…

We construct several definitions of imbalance and playability, both of which are related to the existence of dominated strategies. Specifically, a maximally balanced game and a playable game cannot have dominated strategies for any player.…

We study how media firms can use LLMs to generate news content that aligns with multiple objectives -- making content more engaging while maintaining a preferred level of polarization/slant consistent with the firm's editorial policy. Using…

This paper clarifies how and why structural demand models (Berry and Haile, 2014, 2024) predict unit-level counterfactual outcomes. We do so by casting structural assumptions equivalently as restrictions on the joint distribution of…